Copper prices have surged roughly 50% over the past year, topping US$13,000 per metric tonne on the London Metal Exchange, well above the US$11,000 level typically needed to justify new mine development, Mining Zimbabwe reports.
By Ryan Chigoche
But analysts caution that the rally may be losing momentum. Goldman Sachs’ base metals team predicts an 18% correction by the end of 2026, pointing to a growing supply surplus. According to the bank, much of the rally has been driven by speculative inflows, with over US$30 billion invested in base metals markets last year, more than half of it in copper.
Temporary factors, such as traders stockpiling ahead of potential U.S. tariffs and production disruptions at major mines like Rio Tinto and Freeport-McMoRan, have also pushed prices higher.
Yet higher margins encourage increased recycling, and any rollback of tariff threats could trigger a rapid price drop.
Demand trends add further uncertainty. China still consumes roughly half of global copper, but the mix of usage is shifting. Clean energy and electric vehicles are projected to account for 12% and 9% of global demand by 2030, respectively, while traditional sectors like construction slow down.
These emerging markets remain sensitive to policy changes, meaning any shift in government priorities could dampen demand.
Meanwhile, global data centres are expected to account for only about 1% of copper demand by 2030, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Goldman Sachs also raised its 2026 copper surplus forecast from 160,000 metric tonnes to 300,000, noting that high prices have curbed demand while boosting scrap supply. U.S. stockpiling in 2025, driven by tariff concerns, created a COMEX premium that is expected to fade as tariffs are eased.
What This Means for Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe’s exposure to copper price swings is currently limited. Unlike major copper-producing nations, the country has little large-scale primary copper mining in operation.
Most production comes as a by-product of platinum, gold, and nickel operations, while standalone copper mines, such as Mhangura and Shackleton, have been inactive for decades due to low prices and resource depletion.
Efforts to revive production, including processing tailings at defunct sites, are underway but remain small in scale.
As a result, any global price correction is unlikely to have a major immediate impact on Zimbabwe’s mining revenues.
However, high and stable copper prices could encourage renewed exploration and investment in the country’s estimated 70-plus copper deposits.
If Zimbabwe can address infrastructure and operational challenges, it could eventually position itself as a supplier to the growing clean energy and electric vehicle markets.
