51.6% of Zimbabwe’s Exports Go to the UAE, Highlighting Risks from the US–Iran war and the Need to diversify
Zimbabwe’s export sector has come under fresh scrutiny as global geopolitical tensions escalate. The ongoing United States–Iran war has spilt into the Gulf region, affecting both sea and air routes, with Dubai, the hub for much of Zimbabwe’s gold exports, heavily impacted, Mining Zimbabwe can report.
By Ryan Chigoche
As a result, even temporary disruptions in this region could ripple through Zimbabwe’s economy, affecting shipments, pricing, and foreign currency inflows.
According to the latest Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) Monthly Economic Review for February, merchandise exports totalled US$969.4 million, with gold alone accounting for 50.9% of the total.
Tobacco contributed 25.2%, while platinum group metals (PGMs) accounted for 10.8%. However, more than half of these exports—51.6%—were destined for the UAE, far ahead of China at 22.1% and South Africa at 13.4%.
This concentration underscores the risks of depending heavily on a single trading hub, particularly one exposed to regional conflict.
The Gulf crisis has disrupted key shipping lanes and airspace, especially around the Strait of Hormuz and Dubai’s airports, driving freight costs and insurance premiums higher.
Airlines and cargo carriers have had to reroute or suspend operations, while trading hubs in the region operate under heightened war-risk conditions. For Zimbabwe, whose gold largely passes through Dubai before reaching global buyers, such instability can have immediate consequences.
Part of the country’s reliance on Dubai stems from historical limitations in accessing global markets.
Fidelity Gold Refinery, Zimbabwe’s sole gold refinery, lost its previous international accreditation in 2008 after gold production fell below minimum global thresholds. Since then, much of the country’s bullion has flowed through intermediaries, limiting market access and reducing potential earnings.
There is, however, a window of opportunity. Fidelity Gold Refinery’s General Manager, Peter Magaramombe, confirmed that the refinery is now set to join an accredited international market for its bullion by the end of this year, having already met nearly all requirements.
This development comes at a crucial time, as Zimbabwe’s gold output reached a record 46.7 tonnes in 2025, well above the threshold required for international trade.
By gaining direct access to an accredited international market, Zimbabwe would not only improve pricing and revenue capture but also diversify export routes, reducing reliance on the UAE and enhancing resilience against geopolitical shocks in the Gulf.
This would ensure that the country’s largest export earner continues to provide stable foreign currency inflows even in times of global instability.
The recent US–Iran war, and its spillover effects across the Gulf, highlight a key lesson: overreliance on a single export hub carries significant risks.
For Zimbabwe, accelerating market diversification and supporting Fidelity Gold Refinery’s integration into an international market is no longer optional. It is a strategic necessity, crucial for protecting the gold sector and securing a more stable economic future.
