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A new chapter is unfolding in the global rare earths race as China’s rare earth exports surged in June, signalling a potential trade war thaw, just as the United States prepares to launch a rare earth pricing system designed to challenge Beijing’s longstanding dominance in the critical minerals market, Mining Zimbabwe can report.
By Rudairo Mapuranga
According to China’s customs data, rare earth exports rose to 5,598 metric tons in June 2025, up 21.6% from the previous month and 13.3% year-on-year. This spike in exports may reflect easing trade tensions and renewed industrial demand amid global clean energy and defence supply chain pressures. China, which controls over 85% of global rare earth refining capacity, has long been the world’s dominant force in the market for these vital materials used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and military systems.
However, across the Pacific, the United States is moving aggressively to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains. According to recent reports, US-based Rare Earths Inc. will begin publishing weekly prices for key rare earth elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. This pricing system, the first of its kind in the West, is expected to bring transparency and reduce volatility in rare earth markets currently influenced heavily by Chinese pricing structures.
“This is not just about pricing—it’s about sovereignty and supply chain security,” a Rare Earths Inc. executive told reporters. The company believes that transparent, independent pricing will help level the playing field for Western miners and manufacturers, while attracting investment into alternative supply chains outside of China.
The US initiative is being closely watched by allies, including the European Union and Japan, who have also faced supply risks due to China’s strategic control over rare earth exports. Historically, Beijing has restricted exports of these minerals during times of geopolitical tension, such as in the 2010 dispute with Japan and, more recently, during escalating trade frictions with Washington.
Despite the current jump in Chinese exports, many analysts see the move as China regaining leverage, rather than relaxing its grip. By maintaining control over pricing and supply, China can continue to influence global technology supply chains, even as countries like the US attempt to diversify.
A Global Shift in Critical Mineral Strategies
The global battle over rare earths reflects the broader geopolitical realignment around critical minerals essential to the green energy transition and national security. For developing countries like Zimbabwe, which also hosts rare earth deposits, the power struggle between China and the US presents both risks and opportunities.
Industry experts say Zimbabwe should now prioritise transparent licensing, beneficiation policies, and global partnerships that allow it to leverage its rare earth potential without falling prey to the dominance of a single power bloc.
A Market in Motion
As China’s rare earth exports rise and the US moves to implement a Western pricing benchmark, the global market for critical minerals is entering a transformative phase. Whether this shift leads to a true rebalancing of power—or simply a new form of competition—remains to be seen.
What is clear, however, is that control over rare earths is no longer just about economics—it is about global influence, national security, and the energy future of the planet.
