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Zimbabwe’s gold sector is poised for a strong finish in 2025, with Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) projecting deliveries that could exceed government expectations.
By Ryan Chigoche
The upward momentum is expected to carry into 2026, with a further surge anticipated on the back of bullish gold prices and supportive domestic reforms that have strengthened confidence among miners, Mining Zimbabwe can report.
Over the last four years, Zimbabwe has mirrored global gold production trends, steadily increasing deliveries despite periods of international uncertainty.
Gold output grew from 29.6 tonnes in 2021, with subsequent years reflecting similar upward pressure. By 20 November 2025, Fidelity had averaged 4 tonnes per month, contributing to an overall 29 per cent growth rate between 2021 and 2025. This trend provides the basis for the strong projections for the remainder of 2025.
Speaking at the Association of Mine Managers of Zimbabwe (AMMZ) AGM and Conference in Victoria Falls, FGR General Manager Peter Magaramombe said the company expects to surpass this year’s state target.
“The current monthly gold delivered average is 4 tonnes per month. Assuming that this trend is maintained for the remaining period, and in terms of the remaining period, we are saying from the 20th of November to the 31st of December 2025, we are expecting an additional 5 tonnes of gold. With this hope, for the remaining period, we have projected that Fidelity could close the year at 45 tonnes of gold, surpassing the state target of 40 tonnes and 5 tonnes,” he said.
If achieved, this would represent a 12.5 per cent increase over the government’s projection, signalling the potential for a stronger-than-anticipated finish to the year.
Magaramombe also highlighted that the positive trend is expected to continue into 2026.
“…Then in terms of the gold delivery outlook for the year 2026, while the gold price is not the only determinant factor in terms of driving growth in gold deliveries, the positive influence of bullish gold prices cannot be ignored. Based on this, the total gold deliveries for the year 2026 are projected at 50 tonnes, representing a further surge expected in 2026 on the back of bullish gold prices. This growth represents an 11 per cent growth rate, taking into consideration the 45 tonnes projected to be delivered in the year 2025,” Magaramombe said.
The sector’s resilience is supported by a surge in global bullion prices, with gold trading below US$2,000 per ounce in January 2021 and reaching around US$4,000 per ounce by 2025, an increase of more than 100 per cent.
Rising prices have reinforced gold’s status as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty, incentivising miners to sustain and increase production.
Domestically, reforms such as transparent payment systems, macroeconomic stabilisation, and the formalisation of the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector have also contributed to the projected growth.
Both ASM and large-scale miners remain critical to national output, with typical seasonal variations, including lower deliveries in the first quarter due to rainfall, taken into account in projections.
Looking ahead, Fidelity’s 2026 outlook remains optimistic. While institutional forecasts vary, with some predicting prices above US$4,400 per ounce, Fidelity is working with a conservative estimate of US$4,600 per ounce, reflecting strong central bank demand and sustained investor appetite.
If these projections materialise, Zimbabwe’s gold sector will build on a multi-year growth trend, reinforcing its position as a key contributor to foreign currency earnings and national economic stability.
