Gold deliveries to Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) staged a strong recovery in February 2026, rising 12.1% month-on-month to 3,412.9502 kg from 3,044.9708 kg in January 2026, while posting an impressive 31.5% year-on-year increase compared to 2,596.1084 kg delivered in February 2025, according to the latest statistics released by the country’s sole operating gold buyer and exporter, Mining Zimbabwe can report.
By Rudairo Mapuranga
The February rebound follows January’s seasonal slowdown and confirms what industry analysts have long understood: first-quarter production always recovers as weather conditions improve and operations normalise after the holiday period.
Total gold deliveries for February 2026 stood at 3,412.9502 kg, representing:
Month-on-Month: A 12.1% increase from 3,044.9708 kg in January 2026
Year-on-Year: A substantial 31.5% increase from 2,596.1084 kg in February 2025
Artisanal and Small-Scale Miners (ASM), the backbone of Zimbabwe’s gold sector, delivered 2,525.6529 kg in February 2026, demonstrating remarkable resilience as the rains begin to subside.
Month-on-Month: A strong 12.9% increase from 2,236.5628 kg in January 2026
Year-on-Year: An exceptional 54.0% surge from 1,640.3149 kg delivered in February 2025
The February performance confirms the seasonal pattern highlighted in Mining Zimbabwe’s previous analysis. January’s modest 1.3% year-on-year decline, recorded during peak rainfall, has given way to explosive growth as water levels recede and previously flooded workings become accessible. The 54% year-on-year increase demonstrates that the ASM sector’s productive capacity, built through 2025’s record-breaking performance, remains fully intact.
Large-Scale Producers (LSM) delivered 887.2973 kg in February 2026, showing a modest recovery after January’s holiday-related slowdown.
Month-on-Month: A 9.8% increase from 808.4080 kg in January 2026
Year-on-Year: A 7.2% decline from 955.7935 kg delivered in February 2025
The large-scale sector continues to face structural headwinds. While the month-on-month improvement signals a return to normal operations following December’s holiday shutdowns and January’s ramp-up period, the persistent year-on-year decline reflects ongoing challenges, including power shortages, equipment breakdowns, and capital expenditure constraints that have kept LSM output below its historical potential.
The February 2026 figures validate the analytical framework presented in Mining Zimbabwe’s “Don’t Panic, It’s a January Trend” feature. Following January’s 38.4% month-on-month decline from December 2025’s record performance, the sector has rebounded exactly as historical patterns predict.
January 2026 Recap:
Total deliveries: 3,044.9708 kg (down 38.4% from December 2025, down 3.9% year-on-year)
ASM deliveries: 2,236.5628 kg (down 42.4% month-on-month, down 1.3% year-on-year)
LSM deliveries: 808.4080 kg (down 23.7% month-on-month, down 10.5% year-on-year)
The February recovery demonstrates that January’s slowdown was precisely what analysts described: a natural production reset following December’s exceptional output, amplified by heavier-than-usual rainfall that constrained ASM operations.
The sector’s underlying strength is evident in the year-on-year comparisons. Despite starting the year with a marginal decline, February’s 31.5% overall increase and ASM’s 54% surge confirm that the production gains achieved throughout 2025 have been sustained into 2026.
New Framework Takes Effect Post-February
It is important to note that Fidelity Gold Refinery’s recently announced 90:10 forex payment structure for small-scale miners, implemented following a Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe directive, came into effect after the February delivery period. The February figures, therefore, reflect deliveries made under the previous 100% foreign currency retention framework.
The policy shift, announced in late February 2026, requires small-scale miners to surrender 10% of their export earnings to the central bank in local currency (ZiG), while retaining 90% in foreign currency. This marks a change from the previous arrangement where small-scale miners were exempt from surrender requirements and retained 100% of their proceeds in USD.
RBZ Governor John Mushayavanhu explained that the new framework aims to ensure fairness across the gold sector and eliminate regulatory arbitrage, noting that authorities had observed a “worrying trend” where large-scale producers were channelling gold through small-scale miners to access the 100% USD payment and ASM-specific tax rebates.
Industry stakeholders will watch closely to assess the policy’s impact on March deliveries and beyond, particularly given previous warnings from the Gold Miners Association of Zimbabwe that reducing forex retention could “promote the illicit flow of gold out of the country as miners look for more lucrative markets.”
However, several factors may cushion the transition. Global gold prices remain near historic highs, with bullion up approximately 95% year-on-year. For small-scale miners, 90% of a record-high gold price still exceeds 100% of the lower prices prevailing when the original incentive was designed. The 10% requirement is also deliberately modest, far below the 30% applied to large-scale producers.
Pricing Transparency Supports Producer Confidence
Fidelity Gold Refinery’s recent shift to live market spot prices for all gold purchases and settlements—implemented in early 2026—continues to support producer confidence through greater pricing transparency and responsiveness to global market openings.
By transitioning its primary pricing reference to live spot prices, the refinery ensures its partners benefit from real-time market movements. This modernised approach is crucial given that the gold spot price changes every 15 seconds, influenced by supply and demand, geopolitical tensions, currency movements, and high-frequency trading activity.
For miners, the change simplifies valuation. The price they receive is now directly pegged to a verifiable international standard, updated continuously during market hours. This transparency builds trust and incentivises formal deliveries, particularly important as the sector navigates the transition to the new forex retention framework.
Momentum Building Toward 50 Tonnes
The February rebound strengthens confidence in Zimbabwe’s ability to achieve the projected 50-tonne national target for 2026. With ASM delivering 2,525 kg in February—a 54% year-on-year increase—and the sector now entering the post-rainfall production surge, momentum is building toward the record-breaking performance required.
Key indicators to watch:
March–April acceleration: Historical patterns show ASM production surges once rains fully subside. March 2025 saw ASM deliver a record 1.86 tonnes in a single month; 2026 could see even higher figures given the sector’s expanded capacity.
LSM recovery trajectory: While large-scale producers continue to lag year-on-year, the 9.8% month-on-month increase signals a return to normal operations. Sustained improvement will require resolution of structural challenges, including power supply and equipment constraints.
Policy implementation: The 90:10 framework’s impact on March deliveries will provide the first indication of how small-scale miners respond to the revised incentive structure. Efficient disbursement of the local currency portion and maintenance of reasonable ZiG value will be critical.
February 2026 confirms what experienced industry observers understand: Zimbabwe’s gold sector operates on a predictable seasonal rhythm. January brings consolidation—against rain, against holiday shutdowns, against the slow restart of operations. February begins the recovery. March and April deliver acceleration.
The 31.5% year-on-year increase in February deliveries, driven by ASM’s extraordinary 54% surge, demonstrates that the sector’s productive capacity—built through 2025’s record-breaking campaign—remains fully intact. The fundamentals that propelled Zimbabwe beyond 40 tonnes—competitive pricing, improved transparency, and a resilient ASM sector—continue to support growth.
January was never the story. February is the first page of the real narrative. And that narrative points firmly toward 50 tonnes.
