Gold Export Surge Fails to Curb Growing Trade Deficit in September
Despite a 40.2% surge in gold output in August, up from 37.9% in the previous month, Zimbabwe’s trade deficit widened by 4.2% in September, reaching US$207.6 million, up from US$199.1 million in August, according to the latest trade data released by Zimstat.
By Ryan Chigoche
This increase in the trade deficit was primarily attributed to a substantial 14.7% decrease in exports, which fell to US$575 million from US$674 million in August 2024—a decline of US$99.1 million. Although imports also dropped by 10.4%, totalling US$782.6 million, down from US$873.2 million in August, the significant decrease in exports outweighed this reduction.
Notably, this decline occurred despite the rise in gold production. The increase in gold exports was insufficient to close the gap, as overall export values decreased during the reported period. The widening trade deficit was further exacerbated by sharp declines in other exports, particularly nickel ores and concentrates, which were cut in half. The country’s sole primary nickel miner, Bindura Nickel Corporation, is currently under administration, with most nickel now coming as a by-product from PGM miners.
The decline in exports was also influenced by a sharp drop in nickel prices, which saw the average annual price for 2023 fall by 15.3% to $21,688 per tonne, down from $25,618 per tonne in 2022. This decrease was driven by an oversupply of nickel and weak demand, particularly from industries reliant on stainless steel—a trend that has continued into this year.
Zimstat’s trade data also indicated that ferroalloy exports experienced a reduction of more than half, and a decline in coke and semi-coke coal exports further weighed on the overall export value.
In September 2024, the top ten exported products included semi-manufactured gold, tobacco (either partly or wholly stemmed/stripped), and nickel mattes, which accounted for 40.2%, 19.3%, and 13.0% of the total export value of US$575 million, respectively.
The primary destinations for these exports were the United Arab Emirates (41.0%), South Africa (25.4%), and China (14.2%), collectively contributing about 81% of the total export value.
Conversely, the top ten imported products for the same month included mineral fuels, mineral oils and products, machinery and mechanical appliances, vehicles, and cereals, representing 20.7%, 14.6%, 8.2%, and 7.6% of the total import value of US$782.6 million.
The major source countries for imports were South Africa (36.8%), China (19.2%), the Bahamas (6.1%), and Singapore and the UAE, each at 4.6%. Together, these five countries accounted for approximately 71% of the total import value.