Just weeks ago, JPMorgan was telling the market to expect gold at $6,000 per ounce by year-end. Now, the investment bank has pulled back sharply, forecasting $4,300 in the third quarter and $4,500 by December, Mining Zimbabwe can report.
By Ryan Chigoche
For Zimbabwe’s gold mining sector, the revision is a mixed bag. Prices remain historically strong — nowhere near the lows that once crippled the industry — but the super-charged rally that many had banked on is no longer in the cards. And with that, so too goes the prospect of a 10% royalty windfall for the fiscus.
The bank blamed softer demand from key physical markets and warned that hotter-than-expected U.S. economic data over the summer could push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than anticipated. That would put pressure on gold, which offers no yield, as investors chase better returns elsewhere.
On Friday, spot gold climbed 1.3% to $4,174.21 per ounce by 1241 GMT, touching its highest level since June 23. For the week, bullion was up more than 2%. Still, the $6,000 mark that seemed within reach just a month ago now looks like a bridge too far for 2026.
Why the 10% Royalty Won’t Bite – For Now
Under Zimbabwe’s sliding-scale royalty regime, the rate at which gold is taxed depends entirely on where the international price lands:
· 3% when gold is below US$1,200 per ounce
· 5% when it trades between US$1,201 and US$5,000
· 10% only when the price surpasses US$5,000
With JPMorgan now calling a peak of $4,500, the top tier simply won’t be triggered this year. That means the Treasury will have to make do with the 5% rate for large-scale producers, missing out on the extra revenue that a $6,000 price would have delivered.
It’s worth noting that the 10% rate was never going to apply to small-scale miners anyway. The artisanal and small-scale mining sector, which accounts for over 60% of Zimbabwe’s gold deliveries, remains subject to a lower royalty of up to 2% — and that hasn’t changed.
Meanwhile, Zimbabwe has set its sights on producing 50 tonnes of gold annually by 2026/2027 — an ambitious goal that requires sustained investment, formalisation of informal miners, and a supportive price environment.
At $4,500 per ounce, a 50-tonne annual output would bring in around $225 million in export earnings. That’s still a hefty sum, but it falls well short of the $300 million that would have come with a $6,000 price tag.
The Long View Remains Bullish
Despite the near-term pullback, JPMorgan hasn’t turned bearish on gold. Far from it. The bank still expects prices to push higher into 2027, driven by sustained central bank buying and structural shifts such as de-dollarisation.
That longer-term picture aligns with Zimbabwe’s own ambitions. The Gold Mobilisation Programme, ongoing formalisation efforts, and incentives for producers are all geared toward unlocking that 50-tonne target — and if JPMorgan’s long-term call proves right, the pricing environment should eventually cooperate.
