Zimbabwe’s gold output is expected to dip in the first quarter of 2025 due to the effects of La Niña, which will bring a prolonged wet season, in contrast to the drier conditions of the prior comparable period. This is according to a new Economic Outlook and Strategy report by Morgan & Co.
By Ryan Chigoche
Currently, Southern Africa is transitioning from an El Niño to a La Niña pattern, which is typically associated with normal to above-normal rainfall across the region. While this may have a negative impact on Zimbabwe’s gold production, the report noted that gold receipts will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace. This growth is expected to contribute to the country’s projected 6% economic growth in 2025.
“Zimbabwe’s gold receipts, which account for 30% of mining receipts, will continue growing but at a much slower pace because of the impact of La Niña and waning central bank purchases on output and prices, respectively,” the research stated.
In 2024, Zimbabwe’s local gold output surged to 36.6 tonnes, following tax incentives for small-scale miners, which led to a significant recovery beginning in March of that year. However, “heavy rainfall on the back of the La Niña will likely result in depressed output in the first quarter of 2025,” the report added.
Despite the expected dip in gold receipts early in 2025, Zimbabwe is poised to maintain a growth trajectory, remaining among the African countries with economic growth rates above the regional average (4.3%) and the global average (3.2%). This positive outlook is driven by elevated gold prices, with a rebound anticipated in the second quarter of 2025.
Zimbabwe is forecasting its economy to grow between 5.5% and 6% in 2024, thanks to strong performance in the mining and agricultural sectors, with the former likely to benefit from the La Niña-induced rainfall.
On the global front, gold prices, while remaining high, are expected to see a slight decline in 2025 compared to 2024, as a result of an anticipated decrease in central bank purchases and a reduction in US interest rate cuts.
Furthermore, while global geopolitical risks remain high, efforts by political leaders, such as former President Donald Trump’s attempts to de-escalate global tensions, may also impact the demand and price of the yellow metal.
As Zimbabwe faces a mixed economic forecast for 2025, the gold sector remains central to its overall economic performance.
Despite the short-term dip in output due to La Niña’s impact on mining conditions, the country’s strong track record in gold production and the mining sector’s resilience indicate that Zimbabwe is well-positioned to recover.
This aligns with broader regional trends, where many African nations are finding ways to leverage their mineral wealth despite global economic uncertainty.
