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Gold prices in July 2025 edged up 0.3%, closing at US$3,299 per ounce, supported by tariff-driven inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions, according to the Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM).
By Ryan Chigoche
Despite a stronger US dollar limiting wider gains, gold’s year-to-date return stands at 26%, underpinned by momentum factors that offset currency pressure.
Global gold ETF inflows remained strong, reaching US$3.2 billion (23 tonnes) in July. North America led with US$1.4 billion (12 tonnes), Europe contributed US$1.7 billion (11 tonnes), and Asia added a modest US$0.1 billion (0.8 tonnes).
Minor outflows of 1 tonne were recorded elsewhere.
COMEX net longs have risen since April lows, reflecting investor appetite amid tariff fears and broader market uncertainty. Fundamentals such as a weaker dollar, persistent geopolitical risks, and expectations of lower policy rates continue to support gold.
Weak US labour data for August hints at potential easing, which could reduce real yields and further underpin prices. Rising swap rates also signal growing inflation concerns, adding to gold’s appeal.
While international demand and macroeconomic factors drive much of the price action, local supply is playing an increasingly important role.
In the first half of 2025, gold deliveries to Fidelity Gold Refinery surged by nearly 46% to 20,103 kg compared to 13,784 kg in the same period in 2024.
The increase was largely driven by artisanal and small-scale miners, whose deliveries almost doubled to 14,562 kg. Large-scale miners delivered 5,542 kg, down slightly from last year.
This growth highlights improving confidence in formal marketing channels, with Fidelity offering competitive prices that encourage miners to sell legally.
Strong local deliveries not only reinforce Zimbabwe’s contribution to global gold flows but also support domestic liquidity, complementing the momentum seen in international markets.
COMEX and ETF investors historically respond sharply to shifts in yields, with a 100-basis-point change often translating to around 20% adjustments in positions.
With a softer dollar, lower interest rates, and persistent risks, inflows could continue, sustaining gold’s momentum even if central bank buying slows.
While near-term risks remain from potential dollar strength, gold’s outlook is positive, underpinned by both global dynamics and strengthening domestic supply.
