Global lithium demand is forecast to more than triple by 2050, requiring more than US$100 billion in investment to develop the equivalent of 134 new mines as electric vehicles and battery storage drive consumption, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI).
By Ryan Chigoche
The London-based research firm expects demand to rise to nearly seven million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2050, from 2.11 million tonnes in 2026. Based on an average annual production capacity of 36,000 tonnes per mine, the additional supply would require the equivalent of a new mine every two months over the next 24 years.
The scale of the projected expansion presents a challenge for an industry already exposed to commodity price volatility, lengthy permitting processes and competition for capital from other sectors, including artificial intelligence, defence and the wider energy transition.
BMI’s outlook highlights the investment required to keep lithium supply aligned with the growth of battery-powered transport and energy storage, while raising questions about whether producers can sustain project development through periods of weaker prices.
Electric vehicles are expected to account for 76% of lithium demand by 2050, up from 55% in 2026. Batteries already represent 92% of total consumption, compared with about 70% in 2020.
Demand from stationary energy storage has grown by more than 60% annually over the past two years, reflecting the expanding use of batteries to store electricity. BMI expects growth in this segment to moderate to about 5% a year through the end of the decade.
Australia’s share of supply set to decline
The geography of lithium production is expected to shift as existing mines deplete and new projects emerge in competing jurisdictions.
Australia, the world’s largest lithium mining jurisdiction, is forecast to account for 29% of global mined supply in 2026, but its share could fall to 20% by 2050. The outlook includes brownfield developments such as PLS’s P2000 expansion, which is expected to begin around 2030.
BMI’s projections point to the need for continued investment to replace declining output from established operations. Price uncertainty and growing regulatory demands could make it harder to finance that expansion.
China is expected to retain about a quarter of global mined lithium production, supported by investment in domestic resources and its established position in the battery supply chain.
North America’s share of mined output is forecast to rise from 1.7% in 2026 to 13% by 2050. Its share of global lithium demand from battery cell manufacturing is also expected to double to 12% over the same period.
Europe faces a different supply imbalance. Although the region accounts for 7% of lithium demand from cell production, it contributes less than 1% of mined supply. BMI expects Europe’s share of global mined output to reach 5.5% by 2050, compared with its projected 8% share of battery cell manufacturing demand.
Expanding production in North America and Europe could prove costly and slow, with some deposits requiring technologies that have yet to be proven commercially and other projects facing environmental concerns and community opposition.
Recycling may reduce the need for new mines
The number of mines required could rise further if electric vehicle adoption and energy storage demand exceed BMI’s base-case projections.
Under its higher-demand scenario, global lithium consumption could approach nine million tonnes LCE by 2050, requiring the equivalent of about 180 new mines and more than US$150 billion in investment.
Recycling is expected to offset part of that requirement. BMI forecasts that recovered material could account for almost half of lithium supply by mid-century, although achieving that level will depend on the availability of used batteries and whether recycled material can compete commercially with newly mined lithium.
The firm’s capital expenditure analysis estimates that about US$64 billion will be needed to meet lithium requirements through 2040, assuming recycling supplies a substantial portion of future demand.
The timing of battery retirements remains a key uncertainty because materials cannot be recovered until batteries reach the end of their useful lives. Any shortfall in recycled supply would increase the amount of lithium that mining companies must produce.
The projections have implications for producers in emerging lithium jurisdictions, including Zimbabwe, which has attracted investment in hard-rock lithium mining and is pushing for more domestic processing. The country’s ability to capture greater value from its resources will depend on investment in processing capacity, reliable infrastructure and commercially competitive operations.
However, BMI’s global forecast does not specify how much future lithium supply Zimbabwe could contribute.
The industry’s ability to finance new projects through commodity price cycles while expanding recycling capacity will be central to meeting projected demand. With electric vehicles expected to dominate consumption, the need to secure reliable supplies of lithium is likely to remain a key consideration for miners, processors and battery manufacturers through mid-century.
