Zimbabwe’s gold sector is facing growing uncertainty as escalating tensions in the Middle East begin to disrupt payment channels and trade flows. With gold contributing nearly half of the country’s export earnings, industry players warn that liquidity constraints and delayed transactions could have wider economic implications.
By Rudairo Mapuranga
Zimbabwe’s gold export receipts, which contributed 45% of total export earnings last year, face “indirect risk” from an escalation of the Middle East conflict, the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) has warned, as local traders report that war-related disruptions are already affecting gold sales and liquidity in the sector.
In a submission to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the chamber pointed to the United Arab Emirates as a major destination for Zimbabwe’s gold shipments.
“If tensions escalate, there may be tighter compliance, financial scrutiny, or disruptions in payment channels linked to Middle East markets, as well as a slowdown in economic activity,” the ZNCC said.
The submission, seen by Mining Zimbabwe, comes as Zimbabwe earned US$568.6 million from gold exports in the first two months of 2026, more than double the year-earlier period, according to Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) data.
A gold exporter who buys from Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) told Mining Zimbabwe that while they hold export contracts, selling the gold has become difficult because of the war. The exporter declined to elaborate on how the conflict is affecting transactions, citing commercial sensitivity.
Separately, a gold buyer said liquidity in the industry has dried up.
“Money has not been circulating in the gold industry. We are short of money to buy the gold that is there,” the buyer said.
Analysts say the cash squeeze is linked to the same external disruption. “Of late, there is little circulation of money in the country. Much of the money in circulation comes from gold, so if gold is not being sold, it becomes a problem,” one analyst said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Caledonia Mining Says It Is Not Affected
Not all producers are feeling the impact. Caledonia Mining Corporation, which operates the Blanket Mine in Gwanda, said in its latest report that the Middle East conflict has not affected its operations because the company does not sell to Dubai markets.
Caledonia’s exemption highlights the concentration risk facing Zimbabwe’s gold sector: much of the country’s gold exports are channelled through Dubai, making them vulnerable to shifts in that hub’s financial or regulatory environment.
The Reserve Bank and Fidelity Gold Refinery did not immediately respond to requests for comment on how the conflict may be affecting payment channels or export flows.
The ZNCC’s submission suggests that while record gold prices and strong production have boosted Zimbabwe’s foreign currency earnings, geopolitical shocks could still disrupt the flow of those revenues. With the 50-tonne annual target within reach, industry players are watching the Middle East situation closely for any further tightening of financial systems or compliance requirements.
