Zimbabwe’s mineral revenues are expected to close 2025 at US$7 billion before rising to US$7.5 billion in 2026, a 7 per cent increase driven by firmer commodity prices and growing gold output, Mining Zimbabwe can report.
By Ryan Chigoche
These revised earnings forecasts were issued by the Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe (CoMZ) in its newly released Mining Prospects 2026 report, marking a significant upward revision from the chamber’s earlier projection of US$6 billion and US$6.5 billion for the same period.
This stronger outlook comes as Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) is projecting gold deliveries of 45 tonnes by year-end, surpassing initial expectations of 40 tonnes.
Producers have been ramping up output to take advantage of soaring bullion prices, which have surged by more than 50 per cent this year to US$4,159.52 per ounce and are forecast to reach US$4,900 next year.
“Mineral earnings are expected to reach US$7.5 billion in 2026 from approximately US$7 billion in 2025. This growth is expected to be driven by anticipated strong output performance and favourable commodity prices. Gold and PGMs are expected to account for more than 70% of mineral earnings in 2026,” CoMZ’s report revealed.
Building on this positive outlook, the survey noted improving sentiment among mining executives regarding global market conditions.
“Commodity market conditions are expected to improve. Respondent mining executives are generally optimistic about prospects of improved commodity market conditions in 2026, with a measured index of +18. Most respondents are expecting prices for key commodities such as PGMs, lithium and gold to firm up in 2026.”
However, despite the optimism around commodity markets, the chamber cautioned that several domestic pressures could temper growth. Key concerns cited include taxation, regulatory bottlenecks, and unreliable power supply.
“Mining fiscal framework expected to worsen. Mining executives are generally pessimistic about the prospects for an optimal fiscal regime in 2026, with a measured index of -13,” the report stated. “The executives indicated that they are already experiencing increased pressure from the government and Zimra to collect more revenue from the mining industry and are concerned that the government may introduce new taxes or increase existing ones in 2026.”
Among other bottlenecks expected to weigh on the 2026 projection, the report notes ongoing power shortages that have forced miners to invest heavily in alternative energy, leaving respondents “generally pessimistic about power supply availability at their operations in 2026 with a measured index of -6.3.” Concerns over access to foreign currency are also mounting due to the 70 per cent retention threshold and uncertainty surrounding de-dollarisation, with the chamber warning that “availability of foreign currency may worsen in 2026.”
The outlook is further constrained by policy uncertainty, as executives “expect the mining policy and legislative environment to remain suboptimal in 2026,” citing delays in finalising key laws and frameworks, including amendments to the Mines and Minerals Act and unresolved issues under the Use It or Lose It policy.
Speaking at the report launch, Mines and Mining Development Minister Winston Chitando said the government would meet stakeholders to address the concerns raised.
“We will engage outside this (launch) on the results of this survey so that when we meet again next year, those areas that were negative will have been addressed,” he said.
“Those areas where there were negative perceptions will have been addressed. We are going to engage to ensure that we have a mining environment which has the right ingredients for the success of the industry,” he added.
