The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a strong rebound for Zimbabwe’s economy in 2025, estimating growth of 6.0 per cent and a widening fiscal surplus by 2026. But behind the upbeat numbers lies an uneasy truth: the recovery is being fuelled mainly by short-term gains in mining and agriculture rather than lasting structural reforms, Mining Zimbabwe reports.
By Ryan Chigoche
In its October 2025 Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF presents Zimbabwe as a country on the mend, crediting higher mineral output—especially in gold and platinum—for much of the expected growth.
Analysts, however, describe the improvement as a cyclical bounce rather than a transformation, noting that the country is merely recovering from the drought-induced slowdown of 2024.
The Fund itself acknowledges that growth will likely moderate to 4.6 per cent in 2026, slightly above the Sub-Saharan average, showing the fragile base on which this optimism rests.
Mining remains Zimbabwe’s biggest foreign currency earner and a crucial contributor to exports.
Yet this dependence is also the economy’s greatest vulnerability. Any dip in global commodity prices or production disruptions could quickly unravel the projected rebound.
The recent 6.3 per cent plunge in gold prices, the sharpest since 2019, underscored how sensitive the country’s prospects are to market swings.
Analysts argue that without clear policies that promote investment stability, beneficiation, and transparent governance, mining will continue to provide only intermittent relief rather than sustainable growth.
The IMF expects inflation to fall sharply from 736.1 per cent in 2024 to 89 per cent in 2025, and further to 18.2 per cent the following year.
But even at that reduced level, prices would still rise far faster than the regional average, eroding profits for mining companies facing high local costs.
The Fund also commends Zimbabwe for an anticipated fiscal surplus of 3.1 per cent in 2025 and 4.4 per cent by 2026, but independent economists warn that the surplus is misleading.
It reflects unpaid domestic arrears and delayed payments to suppliers and contractors, including those serving the mining industry.
By postponing these obligations, the government reduces recorded expenditure but simultaneously strangles local business liquidity.
The same doubts extend to debt figures. The IMF predicts that the public debt-to-GDP ratio will decline from 73 per cent in 2024 to 41.6 per cent in 2026.
Yet this statistical improvement, critics note, results more from currency rebasing and inflation effects than from genuine repayment.
Zimbabwe remains in debt distress, burdened by arrears to the World Bank, IMF, and African Development Bank—an obstacle that continues to block access to affordable credit.
Monetary conditions remain equally restrictive. Broad money supply is below 10 per cent of GDP, compared to an average of over 35 per cent across the region.
While this may suggest tight monetary discipline, it instead highlights how little liquidity circulates in local currency.
In a largely dollarised economy, most transactions bypass the formal financial system, leaving miners and other businesses struggling to secure local financing.
The current account surplus cited by the IMF offers some comfort, supported by gold, tobacco, and platinum exports alongside strong diaspora remittances.
However, Zimbabwe’s foreign reserves remain alarmingly low—less than one month of import cover against the recommended three months.
Without that buffer, any drop in global mineral prices or remittance inflows could quickly destabilise the economy again.
Although the IMF’s projections suggest optimism, Zimbabwe’s growth story remains largely a reflection of commodity price movements rather than homegrown reform.
The mining sector is carrying the recovery, but its gains are temporary and vulnerable to global shifts.
True stability will require credible fiscal management, settlement of domestic and foreign arrears, and policies that convert mineral wealth into lasting economic transformation.
For now, the economy’s rebound is not a sign of deep reform, but a familiar cycle—an upswing powered by ore and optimism, with fragility never far beneath the surface.
