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International oil prices have climbed to their highest levels in five months, with Brent crude briefly jumping 5.7% to US$81.40 a barrel before easing to US$78.39. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.6% to US$75.76.
By Ryan Chigoche
The price spike follows U.S. airstrikes over the weekend targeting Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
These strikes have intensified an already volatile situation in the Middle East, sparked two weeks ago by Israeli attacks on Iranian targets.
In response, Iran has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane that handles about 20% of global oil and 30% of liquefied natural gas.
The potential closure has sent global energy markets into disarray, raising fears of rising costs across fuel, freight, and consumer goods.
For Zimbabwe, which already endures the highest fuel prices in Africa, this global disruption is likely to lead to further local price hikes and economic stress.
The U.S. airstrikes, ordered by President Donald Trump, aimed to cripple Iran’s nuclear program and came shortly after Israel’s June 13 assault on Iranian military infrastructure. That Israeli offensive prompted a barrage of over 180 ballistic missiles from Iran in retaliation.
Amid this escalation, Iran’s parliament voted to consider shutting the 21-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz.
The waterway is a crucial route for oil exports from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran itself, which pumps around 3.3 million barrels daily. A shutdown would pose a serious threat to global energy supplies.
The implications are particularly severe for Zimbabwe, which depends heavily on imported fuel sourced via South African ports and the Feruka pipeline from Mozambique’s Beira port.
As international oil prices surge, Zimbabwe’s import costs rise in tandem, adding pressure to an already strained economy that is battling persistent structural challenges and repeated external shocks.
The country’s fuel sector, already precarious, now faces a worsening outlook. In May 2025, petrol and diesel were priced at US$1.53 per litre—already among the highest in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region—despite a prior drop in global oil prices earlier in the year.
The situation is further complicated by the role of the National Oil Company of Zimbabwe (NOCZIM), which oversees bulk fuel procurement.
The company has a troubled track record, with previous mismanagement contributing to erratic fuel supplies.
In past shortages, supply levels dropped to just 40% of demand, crippling both business operations and public transport.
With oil prices rising again, Zimbabwe could face a repeat of such supply disruptions, especially as the country continues to struggle with limited access to foreign currency, which is essential for importing fuel.
Zimbabwe’s multicurrency system—where the U.S. dollar dominates alongside the ZiG—adds another layer of complexity.
Fuel importers, already battling currency scarcity, now face soaring procurement costs that are likely to further deplete the country’s thin foreign reserves.
The economic impact will ripple across key sectors. Agriculture and mining, the two pillars of Zimbabwe’s economy, are highly vulnerable to fuel price volatility.
The 2024 El Niño-induced drought reduced agricultural output by 15%, leaving 7.7 million people food insecure.
For farmers reliant on diesel for irrigation and machinery, rising fuel costs will intensify production challenges, particularly as Zimbabwe’s fuel prices already exceed those in neighbouring countries such as Zambia and Botswana.
Higher shipping costs, driven by rising oil prices, also threaten to raise the price of maize imports—an essential staple for millions of households.
The industrial sector is equally exposed. Zimbabwe’s manufacturers are already grappling with chronic power cuts due to low water levels at Lake Kariba.
Blackouts lasting up to 12 hours a day have forced many factories to rely on diesel-powered generators. A jump in fuel prices will push operating costs even higher, undermining production and profitability.
Mining, one of Zimbabwe’s top export earners—especially through gold—may also take a hit. Increased transport and energy costs could squeeze margins, posing a setback to the government’s ambition of transforming the sector into a US$12 billion industry by 2030.
In the face of these converging pressures, Zimbabwe’s economy remains deeply exposed to global oil market shocks, especially when geopolitical instability in the Gulf region sends energy prices surging.
