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Despite global palladium prices enjoying a 31% rally so far this year, thanks to subdued production in South Africa and thin liquidity in the spot market, the storm brewing in the palladium world is far from over, Mining Zimbabwe can report.
By Rudairo Mapuranga
A new twist has emerged, and it’s not coming from Russia or China—but from a South African-rooted mining giant with local Zimbabwean ties. Sibanye-Stillwater, the 50/50 joint owner of Mimosa Mining Company alongside Impala Platinum (Implats), has filed a petition urging the United States to impose tariffs on palladium imports from Russia.
At first glance, this might seem like a distant geopolitical issue. But in reality, it’s a high-stakes economic chess move that could shape the price and supply dynamics of platinum group metals (PGMs) globally, Zimbabwe included.
“We believe that Russian palladium imports are being sold below market prices due to various factors, beginning primarily after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022,” said Neal Froneman, Sibanye-Stillwater’s outspoken Chief Executive, in a statement issued July 31.
“Obtaining relief from dumped and subsidised Russian imports will give Sibanye-Stillwater, its employees, and the entire US PGM industry an opportunity to compete on a more level playing field,” he added.
What Happens Abroad Affects Us Here
It’s important to understand that Sibanye is not just another name in global mining headlines. The company is deeply entrenched in Zimbabwe’s PGM story, holding a 50% stake in Mimosa Mining Company, one of the country’s largest and most stable PGM producers.
Mimosa, located near Zvishavane, has long been a model of underground mining efficiency and is critical in Zimbabwe’s US$40 billion mining roadmap. Moves by one of its parent companies to influence global PGM trade policy, therefore, carry implications for the entire region’s investment confidence, pricing structures, and downstream processing decisions.
Why the Tariff Talk Now?
Froneman’s petition calls on the US government to impose duties on Russian palladium imports, citing “dumping” a term used when foreign companies sell goods in another country at unfairly low prices, usually below production cost.
Since the Ukraine conflict began in 2022, Russia’s Nornickel, the world’s top palladium producer with 40% of global supply, has continued shipping metal to the US without interruption. Unlike aluminium, nickel, and oil, palladium has remained untouched by Western sanctions until now.
According to analysts at Heraeus, US imports of Russian palladium rose 42% year-on-year between January and May 2025, totalling over 500,000 troy ounces. That’s not just a trade figure; it’s a market-shaping volume.
Froneman argues that these low-cost imports are depressing prices, harming American PGM producers—including Sibanye’s own Stillwater operation in Montana, where a $500 million asset impairment was recorded recently due to price softness.
What’s at Stake for Zimbabwe and the Region?
Any move that disrupts the free flow of PGMs, especially palladium, could have major ripple effects across Zimbabwe’s mining economy. While the proposed tariff might protect US producers in the short term, it could stir global price volatility, trigger metal re-routing, and affect refining partnerships and tolling agreements in Southern Africa.
“Although placing duties on Russian metal would not necessarily impact the market balance of palladium, it could result in the re-routing of global physical metal flows, leading to price volatility,” Heraeus analysts warned.
For Zimbabwe, which exports most of its PGMs unrefined and relies on South African refineries and smelters (such as Zimplats’ expanded smelter), market volatility often translates to uncertain forex inflows, planning challenges, and constrained capital reinvestment.
And for Mimosa, whose ownership lies squarely with Sibanye and Implats—two giants with direct exposure to global shifts—this issue can’t be viewed from afar.
Russia, China, and the Bigger Game
As the US considers Sibanye’s petition (a decision is expected within 13 months), Russia has remained mum. Nornickel declined to comment, but trade data shows that China is now the second-largest buyer of Russian palladium after the US.
This tells us one thing: A new metal Cold War is taking shape, one driven not by ideology, but by catalytic converters, clean air laws, and electrification. In this new order, countries with PGMs are both courted and contested.
A Bull Run Ahead?
Interestingly, while all this tension unfolds, analysts believe palladium prices could continue to rise into 2025 for the first time in four years. Some attribute this to tight supplies, others to platinum’s recent rally, which often carries palladium along with it in price trends.
For Zimbabwe, this could be a golden moment hidden in palladium’s shadow—an opportunity to lobby for local refining, fair pricing mechanisms, and more control over mineral value chains. But for that to happen, policymakers must stay awake to global shifts and play proactively, not just reactively.
Sibanye’s tariff call might sound like a transatlantic legal manoeuvre. But for those watching Zimbabwe’s mining future, it’s a loud reminder: global mining boardroom decisions can—and do—affect local mines, workers, and communities.
Mimosa isn’t just producing platinum and palladium from beneath Zvishavane’s hills. It’s part of a much larger contest—one in which trade policy, geopolitics, and mineral nationalism collide.
And in that contest, Zimbabwe must find its voice—and fast.
