According to BMI, coal prices are holding firm amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a trend that could present Zimbabwe with a timely opportunity to strengthen its position in regional energy markets, Mining Zimbabwe reports.
By Ryan Chigoche
BMI notes that Newcastle thermal coal prices surged by about 23% between late February and the end of March, driven largely by conflict-linked disruptions tied to Iran that have lifted broader energy prices. Although prices have slightly eased, thermal coal remains elevated at around $139 per tonne, well above the 2025 average of $106/t.
The agency attributes this resilience to rising natural gas prices, which are prompting a shift back to coal in key Asian markets. As a result, coal is regaining traction as a dependable and relatively low-cost baseload energy source in a volatile global energy environment.
This global backdrop comes at a time when Zimbabwe is quietly rebuilding its coal export profile. According to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s latest data, the country generated US$16.5 million from coal exports in February 2026, accounting for about 1.7% of total merchandise exports.
While this contribution remains modest compared to dominant exports such as gold and tobacco, it underscores coal’s growing relevance, particularly as global prices strengthen.
However, Zimbabwe’s coal story is less about exports alone and more about its strategic role in the domestic economy. The bulk of coal produced locally is consumed within the country, feeding into power generation and industrial processes. The Hwange Thermal Power Station, the country’s largest power plant, relies heavily on coal to supply electricity to the national grid.
Beyond electricity, coal is critical in sectors such as steelmaking, ferrochrome smelting, cement production, and general manufacturing, making it a backbone of Zimbabwe’s industrial base.
Zimbabwe’s coal industry is anchored by key producers, led by Hwange Colliery Company Limited, alongside a growing number of private players operating in Matabeleland North and the Hwange Basin. These producers collectively supply both domestic industries and regional export markets such as Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Africa.
Industry estimates suggest the country consumes between 2.5 million and 3 million tonnes of coal annually, with only a fraction exported. This highlights a key structural reality: Zimbabwe is still largely a domestic coal economy, with exports representing untapped upside rather than core revenue.
That upside could become more significant if current global trends persist. Higher international prices, combined with rising demand for affordable energy, create room for Zimbabwe to scale exports, particularly within the region where logistics are more favourable.
At the same time, there is an increasing focus on moving up the value chain. Rather than exporting raw thermal coal, Zimbabwe is looking to expand into processed products such as coke, which are essential for metallurgical industries. This aligns with broader calls to boost beneficiation and reduce reliance on raw commodity exports.
BMI’s upward revision of its 2026 Newcastle thermal coal price forecast to $115/t reinforces this outlook. For Zimbabwe, the implication is clear: while coal may currently play a secondary role in export earnings, a sustained global price rally, combined with local value addition, could turn it into a more meaningful contributor to both export revenues and industrial growth.
