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Zimbabwe’s gold sector is poised for a potentially lucrative 2025 as the World Bank projects a 30 per cent increase in global gold prices, driven by safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, Mining Zimbabwe can report.
By Ryan Chigoche
According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects 2025 report, annual average gold prices are expected to reach record highs this year before stabilizing through 2026 and 2027.
This positive forecast comes amid a broader slowdown in global commodity markets, with the prices of base metals projected to fall by 5 percent in 2025 and continue drifting lower before stabilizing. The decline in base metals such as copper and aluminium reflects persistent headwinds in global manufacturing and trade tensions, which have weighed on industrial demand.
In contrast, the precious metals price index, which primarily reflects gold along with silver and platinum, is expected to buck this trend with a significant price increase. This divergence highlights gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty.
“The precious metals price index, reflecting principally gold but also silver and platinum, is projected to buck the broader trend, increasing by more than 30 percent in 2025. Annual average gold prices are expected to reach a record high this year, supported by safe-haven flows, before plateauing in 2026–27,” the report said.
For Zimbabwe, where gold remains the largest contributor to export earnings and foreign currency inflows, this forecast carries important implications. The country’s national gold production target for 2025 is set at 40 tonnes, a goal that appears achievable based on current trends and planned investments.
Data from Fidelity Gold Refinery indicates that year-to-date gold deliveries reached 15.8 tonnes by the end of May 2025, marking the highest recorded figure for this period. While deliveries in May fell by 9.48 percent compared to April, mainly due to a 13 percent decline in small-scale mining output, large-scale mining production increased by 1 percent month-on-month.
Year-on-year figures show a 28 percent rise in total gold production, driven largely by small-scale miners whose output increased by 52 percent compared to May 2024. Conversely, large-scale mining output declined by 11.34 percent year-on-year.
Small-scale and artisanal miners remain vital to Zimbabwe’s gold production, historically contributing over 60 percent of output. In 2024, small-scale miners accounted for approximately 65 percent of total gold deliveries.
With government efforts to formalize and incentivize this sector, including payments in 100 percent US dollars, small-scale miners are expected to contribute around 25 tonnes toward the 2025 target.
Among large-scale producers, Caledonia Mining Corporation’s Blanket Mine is on track to meet its 2025 target of approximately 2,050 to 2,160 kilograms (2.05 to 2.16 tonnes), having recorded a strong first-quarter output of 530 kilograms. Padenga Holdings, through Dallaglio Investments, aims to produce between 2,638 and 2,799 kilograms (2.64 to 2.80 tonnes) as part of a $30 million capital investment plan to boost gold output.
Kuvimba Mining House is targeting a 13 percent increase in gold production in 2025, with a $38 million investment in Freda Rebecca Mine to extend its life and raise output to around 2,548 kilograms (2.55 tonnes), up from 2,229 kilograms (2.23 tonnes) in 2024. The company is also conducting exploration activities aiming to unlock approximately 40 million tonnes of ore containing nearly 2 million ounces of gold.
Together, these companies are expected to contribute at least 9,000 kilograms (9 tonnes) of gold, with other large-scale producers such as RioZim bringing total large-scale output to approximately 10,000 kilograms (10 tonnes). This strong production outlook positions Zimbabwe well to benefit from the World Bank’s forecasted 30 percent surge in gold prices, potentially translating into significant revenue gains amid a challenging global economic environment.
Global gold prices have already surged to record levels in 2025, hitting $3,500 per ounce in April and $3,432 per ounce in early May. Goldman Sachs projects prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand.
The surge in prices is expected to increase revenues for Zimbabwean gold producers, helping to offset production challenges and boost export earnings. The mining sector is projected to grow by seven percent in 2025, with gold expected to exceed $3 billion in value, contributing significantly to foreign currency reserves.
However, challenges remain, including electricity shortages that disrupt mining operations and smuggling that leads to estimated annual losses of $1.5 billion. Regulatory changes, such as export surrender requirements, also pose hurdles for producers.
Small-scale miners, estimated to number between 500,000 and 1.5 million, remain a key driver of production and have the potential to increase output further with continued financial and policy support.
