Zimbabwe’s large-scale gold mines are on track for their first annual output increase since 2023, with deliveries through May already outpacing the rate recorded during a subdued 2025, according to data from Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR), Mining Zimbabwe can report.
By Ryan Chigoche
Large-scale producers delivered 5.23 metric tonnes in the first five months of 2026, up about 13.6% from the 4.60 tonnes delivered during the same period in 2025, according to Fidelity Gold Refinery data. The segment produced 11.8 tonnes for the whole of 2025, its lowest annual total since 2022.
The stronger start to 2026 follows a gradual improvement in monthly deliveries after a weak January. Large-scale output fell 10.5% year-on-year to 808.4 kilograms in the opening month but recovered steadily thereafter.
Deliveries rose to 1,105.3 kilograms in March, up 14% from the same month in 2025. Momentum accelerated in April, when deliveries reached 1,213.9 kilograms, a 28.3% increase year-on-year, before remaining broadly stable at 1,210.3 kilograms in May, up 22.2%.
The recovery reflects more than stronger bullion prices, with major miners also benefiting from access to higher-grade ore, fresh capital investment, and a relatively stable operating environment.
Gold is forecast to average US$4,600 to US$5,000 an ounce in 2026, improving margins for industrial producers. Caledonia Mining Corp.’s Blanket Mine has guided for 72,000 to 76,500 ounces this year, with higher-grade ore expected in the second half, while Kuvimba Mining House has allocated US$54 million for equipment upgrades across its gold assets, including Freda Rebecca, Shamva, and Jena mines.
Unlike the artisanal sector, large-scale miners have also largely avoided the policy disruptions that affected gold deliveries earlier this year. In March, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe introduced a requirement for small-scale miners to receive 10% of their gold payments in local currency, triggering a 30.8% month-on-month decline in artisanal deliveries as some operators halted production.
The central bank suspended the measure in early April following industry concerns, restoring full foreign-currency payments. Throughout the period, however, large-scale producers retained their usual 70% foreign-currency retention threshold, helping shield operations from the disruption.
That distinction is important in a sector where artisanal and small-scale miners remain the dominant source of gold production. The segment accounted for nearly 75% of Zimbabwe’s record 46.7 tonnes of gold output in 2025. Deliveries from artisanal miners rebounded strongly in May, rising 29.9% year-on-year to 2,744.2 kilograms.
Even so, current trends point to a meaningful recovery in large-scale mining. Based on year-to-date performance and producer guidance, full-year deliveries are projected at between 14.5 and 15.5 tonnes in 2026, representing growth of 23% to 31% from last year’s 11.8 tonnes.
Reaching the lower end of that range would require average monthly deliveries of about 1,325 kilograms between June and December, modestly above the levels recorded in April and May. Achieving the upper end would require monthly deliveries of roughly 1,468 kilograms.
Further growth could come from new projects moving through the development pipeline. The Dokwe Gold Project in Matabeleland North, owned by Ariana Resources, hosts proven and probable reserves of 1.13 million ounces and is designed to produce as much as 100,000 ounces annually, equivalent to about 3.1 tonnes. A definitive feasibility study is expected in the first quarter of 2027, while commissioning is targeted for late 2026 or early 2027.
Seasonal factors may also support production in the months ahead. The second half of the year typically delivers stronger industrial output as drier operating conditions improve mining activity and expansion projects gather pace. With gold prices remaining elevated and major producers maintaining their guidance, Zimbabwe’s large-scale mining sector appears well positioned to record its first annual production increase since 2023.
