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Goldman Sachs has indicated that central banks likely continued significant gold purchases in November, extending a multi-year trend of reserve diversification as countries seek protection against growing geopolitical and financial risks.
By Ryan Chigoche
The Wall Street firm estimates that central banks acquired around 64 tonnes of gold in September, up sharply from about 21 tonnes in August, reflecting ongoing efforts to hedge uncertainty in global markets.
The firm reaffirmed its bullish outlook on gold, projecting that prices could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, with further upside possible if private investors increasingly turn to the metal to diversify portfolios.
Spot gold traded near $4,068 per ounce on Monday, marking a 55% gain so far in 2025. This surge has been driven by safe-haven demand, strong inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds, and expectations of additional U.S. interest rate cuts.
Other major financial institutions are signalling similar optimism. HSBC has raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,455 per ounce and sees the potential for prices to reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026, citing central bank demand and ongoing geopolitical tension.
Bank of America has lifted its 2026 target to $5,000 per ounce, with an average around $4,400 per ounce, while Deutsche Bank highlights a continued safe-haven bid supported by potential global shifts in reserve currencies.
ANZ projects gold could reach $3,600 per ounce by the end of the year amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty.
The sustained global demand for gold is also reflected in regional mining output. Countries with significant gold production, including Zimbabwe, have seen notable increases this year.
For instance, gold deliveries in the first nine months of 2025 rose 37% compared to the same period in 2024, with small-scale miners contributing the majority of output.
Total gold deliveries for the first ten months have already surpassed 37 tonnes, keeping the industry on track to meet annual targets, supporting foreign currency inflows, and strengthening mining sector performance.
The combination of aggressive central bank buying, persistent geopolitical risks, and rising mining output underpins a positive outlook for gold in both global and local markets.
Analysts suggest that while structural demand for gold remains strong, sustained production growth and supportive mining policies will be key to ensuring that regions rich in gold continue to benefit from high prices.
