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Lafarge plant incident to impact fourth quarter 2021 performance

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LAFARGE Zimbabwe says an on-site incident involving roof collapse of one of its cement mills, will have an impact on the group’s business performance in the remaining quarter of 2021.

The incident that happened on 11 October 2021, recorded no fatalities or injuries, but there has been a general low visibility of the company’s cement on the market.

“The necessary measures to restore the structures and restart the mills have commenced and are well under way,” Faithful Sithole, the company’s secretary said in a statement.

She added that stakeholders will be informed of any further developments in due course.

Lafarge in March this year commenced its last project, the new Vertical Cement Mill under the US$25 million expansion plan that commenced in 2019.

Under the expansion plan, the company installed the new US$2,2 million automated Dry Mortars (DMO) plant, which saw production capacity increasing from 7000 tonnes per annum to 100000 tonnes per annum.

The installation work for the new Vertical Cement Mill, commenced in March 2021 and is expected to be commissioned in March 2022.

Under the US$25 million expansion plan, Lafarge is aiming to more than double market share and annual production capacity.

According to the company’s trading update to May 2021, the business achieved volume growth leveraging on the growing market demand in the Individual Home Builder segment as well as the ongoing major infrastructure development projects led by the government.

Cement volumes for the period increased by 23,7 percent compared to prior year in spite of the Covid-19 national lockdown instituted in the first quarter.

“In the same period Dry Mortar products volumes grew by 105 percent compared to the same period last year.

“The Binastore retail franchise recorded a remarkable 555 percent growth in volumes compared to the same period in prior year. This growth in the retail franchise business, was further strengthened by the growth in purchases made on the Binastore e-commerce site facilitating business continuity during lockdown periods,” said the company.

The company noted that as a result of strategic changes in product portfolio mix the average selling price was favourable against budget.

For the year ended 31 December 2020, the group posted a much-improved financial performance for the year in spite of the Covid-19 induced operational challenges.

Revenue for the year grew by 68,5 percent to $6,9 billion compared to $4,1 billion in prior year, attributed to significant volume growth in the Dry Mortars business and a market shift towards high strength cement which influenced a significant change in the cement product mix.

 

 

Business Weekly

Hwange Villagers Petition Chinese Company To Halt Coal Hunt

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Villagers in Dinde village, Hwange district have petitioned Beifa Investments, a Chinese-owned mining company, exploring for coal in the Dinde area to halt any mining activities which they claim are violating the culture and heritage of the Nambya people.

Vongai Mbara

Beifa Investments torched a storm recently when it started exploring for coal in Ward 13, Dinde without consulting villagers.

The villagers fear over 600 families will be displaced if the project continues and have accused local leaders including the traditional leader, Chief Nekatambe and Hwange Rural District Council officials of nicodemously allowing the mining company to continue carrying out the exploration work despite their protests. They also fear their relatives’ grave graves and sacred shrines will be violated.

A rural women’s roundtable meeting organised by the Matabeleland Institute For Human Rights (MIHR) also addressed the issue.

Thembelihle Dlamini, a villager in Dinde and a committee member of the Women’s Coalition of Zimbabwe said there was panic in Dinde Village as eviction was imminent.

“The company did not even consult us that they have intentions of coming to operate at our place. The company is now digging our graves. They should have asked for permission from us, probably we would have performed rituals on these cemeteries,” Dlamini said.

She said the Dinde village is living in fear of eviction.

“We have built schools, clinics and as women, we have our businesses that we have established there.

“As I am talking now, about 600 families or even more are affected. Recently, precious stones were discovered in about four villages in Hwange.

“All those communities will be evicted,” Dlamini said as she appealed to the government to save the community from eviction.

“We also have our river called Nyanduwe and there is gas that is emitted from their working place. It might affect our water and this would make us sick. We are faced with danger as we are prone to contract diseases in the area.”

The Chinese miners are reportedly claiming that they have a special grant from the government, however, they have not produced it despite several demands for them by the Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights.

The villagers’ petition being circulated to gather more people’s signatures reads: “Beifa Investments and Hwange Rural District Council did not carry out proper consultative meetings with the communities and hence this has brought about conflict with the communities involved and Hwange district at large.”

Dinde is home to thousands of Nambyas and Tongas with a majority of Tonga who first settled in the then-named Whange district up to Victoria Falls.

They were resettled in Dinde after their relocation from Sinamatela area in the 1920s to pave way for the Hwange National Park.

An environmental consultant, Oliver Mutasa said there was little the community can do to stop the exploration process.

“Unless if it’s an ecological area like a national park, but unfortunately for an area like Dinde, once a special grant is given, mining activities cannot be stopped,” he said.

“However, if there should be displacement, there should be compensation. Sometimes people lose out on compensation because instead of contributing to the EIA they oppose the whole process. What people need to do is contribute on what they want the miner to do as part of corporate social responsibility.”

MIHR coordinator Khumbulani Maphosa said the government must formulate a human rights-based framework to prevent development-induced evictions.

He said human rights constitutional bodies should be involved first whenever there is an eviction

“Then they do the impact assessment. We trust these commissions better than these consultants hired by the companies because they are paid by the company. These commissions we trust because they are for us,” Maphosa said.

Unki continues to shine

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Anglo American Platinum Limited (Amplats) owned Unki’s mining performance continues to impress, Amplats production report for the third quarter report has shown.

Anerudo Mapuranga

The group said that it is expecting to see an increase to 50,000 platinum group metals (PGMs) ounces increase per annum and projecting monthly tonnes milled increase from c.175 kilotonnes per month to c.210 kilotonnes per month.

However, during the quarter under review, Unki Mines, PGMs production decreased by 29 per cent to 42 500 ounces, negatively impacted by scheduled integration of a debottlenecking concentrator. Platinum production at Unki went down by 30 per cent to 19 000 ounces while palladium production decreased by 30 per cent to 16 600 ounces.

“At Unki, PGM production decreased by 29% to 42,500 ounces (platinum production decreased by 30% to 19,000 ounces and palladium production decreased by 30% to 16,600 ounces), owing to the scheduled integration of the concentrator, following the completion of the concentrator debottlenecking project.

“Mining performance continued to perform well, leading to a build-up of ore tonnes ahead of the concentrator which will be processed in 2022. The debottlenecking project should see monthly tonnes milled increase from c.175 kilotonnes per month to c.210 kilotonnes per month, leading to a ~50,000 PGM ounces increase per annum.” The group said.

According to Amplats Chief Executive Officer Natascha Viljoen, the completion and successful integration of the debottlenecking project at Unki demonstrates how the company is eager to maximize value from the mine.

“We have delivered a strong safety and production performance in the third quarter, with our own-managed operations being fatality-free for the year to 30 September 2021. I am particularly proud of the commitment and dedication our teams across the operations have shown in limiting the impact of Covid-19 on our employees, communities and workplace safety, as illustrated by the significant improvement in our safety record, including in relation to recordable injuries. However, we will not rest until we achieve zero harm across our business.

“The completion and successful integration of our debottlenecking project at Unki demonstrates how we are maximising value from our portfolio of high-quality assets, resulting in an annual run-rate increase of 50,000 PGMs ounces. Similarly, the strong performance of the ACP shows the increased resilience we are embedding across our business, with operational stability our major focus,” she said.

Unki Mine is considered integral to the Minister of Mines and Mining Development Hon Winston Chitando’s vision for the mining industry to become a US$12 Billion sector by 2023 with platinum expected to fetch an annual revenue of US$3 billion annually.

Chitando has been constantly quoted saying that the vision was being achieved day by day, the performance by Unki is therefore proof enough that there is indeed light at the end of the tunnel.

Production costs going up in ZWL

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The large-scale mining sector has been hard hit stubbornly by the cost of production, labour and materials due to the current foreign currency retention offered by the government which is not viable, Mining Zimbabwe can report.

Anerudo Mapuranga

The large-scale producers have lamented about the current foreign currency retention which is at 60% as the elephant in the room that is negatively impacting production significantly.

According to Freda Rebecca Managing Director Mr Eliakem Hove, primary producers were pushing for the government to give the miners 100% forex payment.

He said that the 40% Zimbabwean dollar component is aiding the increasing cost of production.

“Our position as the Chamber as well as Freda Rebecca 60/40 is not adequate we would actually want 100%, worst case 80/20. The Zim dollar component increases your cost currently sitting around 60% when trading, 60/40 is putting pressure on our side,” Hove said.

In a trading update, Bindura Nickel Corporation secretary Conrad Mukanganga said the adverse impact of the cost of local inputs and the increasing disparity between the auction foreign exchange rate, at which the company surrenders 40% of its revenue for Zimbabwe dollars, and the prevailing parallel market rate battered the miner.

He said the unit cost of production increased significantly due to the higher costs incurred in the quarter, as a result of the adverse impact on the cost of local inputs of the increasing disparity between the auction foreign exchange rate, at which the Company surrenders 40% of its revenue for Zimbabwe dollars, and the prevailing parallel market rate.

According to the Deputy Chairperson of the Geological Society of Zimbabwe Mr Kennedy Mtetwa operational costs in local currency are increasing due to high inflation on the parallel market and the failure by the central bank to provide all suppliers with the required foreign currency.

“Production costs going up in ZWL yet exchange rate for 40% is staying the same,” said Mtetwa

Recently, diversified mining group RioZim during the first quarter of 2021 said it did not benefit from a 12% increase in average gold prices due to the reduction of gold foreign currency retention threshold from 70 to 60% by the central bank.

The miner said the retention threshold impacted negatively on gold production by 10%.

Zimbabwean large scale miners are paid 60% of their gold submissions to Fidelity Printers and Refiners (FPR) in USD and 40% in the local currency which of late is on a downward trend on the parallel market. Equipment suppliers and local service providers peg their prices at the prevailing parallel market rates which currently is at ZWL180 against 1USD. The official Foreign Exchange Auction Trading System rate is currently pegged at ZWL86.0551 against 1USD as of 31/08/2021 a rate criticized for being unrealistic as foreign currency allocation isn’t available to everyone.

Why gold smuggling is rife in Zimbabwe

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The mining industry in Zimbabwe plays a significant role in the development of the country as it brings in foreign currency, contributes to government revenue and provides for infrastructure development.

Dumisani Nyoni

Since 2009, the mining sector has become the fastest growing with both small-scale mining companies, artisanal miners and multinational companies taking part in the gold rush.

However, due to illicit financial flows, the southern African nation has been losing billions of dollars through gold smuggling into neighbouring South Africa, the United Arab Emirates among other countries.

For instance, just recently, a 33-year-old Zimbabwean man was arrested at O.R. Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg on May 8 2021 with smuggled gold worth R11 million (about US$730,000).

Tashinga Masinire flew into one of Africa’s busiest airports with 23 pieces of gold which he did not declare, and when challenged “he did not have any permit or licence to be in possession to transport gold.”

Gold smuggling is estimated to cost Zimbabwe US$100million each month, according to Home Affairs minister Kazembe Kazembe.

Cumulative gold output for the first quarter of 2021 stood at 4 311kg, about 13% of the annual target and lower than the comparable period in 2020, largely weighed down by low deliveries from the Artisanal and Small-scale Gold sector (ASGM), according to Finance minister Mthuli Ncube.

Large scale producers delivered about 2 291kg during the period under review, about 11.2% above the same period in 2020, while ASGM delivered 1 586kg, about 55.6% below the same period in 2020.

“This points to possible incidences of side marketing and smuggling (leakages) of our minerals,” Ncube said in his mid-term budget review.

Why gold smuggling

There are several reasons why gold smuggling is rife in Zimbabwe. Kleptocracy, a broken gold pricing system, payment delays are among other main reasons.

FPR an arm of the central bank with a monopoly on buying, refining and exporting Zimbabwe’s gold has a history of struggling to pay gold miners on time, citing foreign currency shortages.

Payments sometimes take weeks yet miners would want to buy consumables like fuel, explosives, detonators, drill steels, capped fuses, among others.

This, therefore, encourages miners to sell unscrupulous buyers who pay instantly.

FPR has tried to offer export incentives to miners, encouraging them to deliver as much gold as possible through the official channels with little success.

Gold miners are paid in US dollars, a much more stable currency than the ever depreciating Zimbabwean dollar.

Miners were legally obliged to sell 40% of their earnings to the central bank at the official exchange rate but that obligation has been removed to lure miners to bring gold to FPR.

The Centre for Natural Resource Governance says poor gold prices offered by FPR were fueling smuggling. Hence, to curb smuggling, the issue of gold prices should be addressed.

The poor price is the result of FPR using a mix of United States dollars and Zimbabwean dollars to pay for precious metals.

“The main problem is that FPR underpays and sometimes pays late for gold. The body pays producers partially in U.S. dollars and partially in amounts of Zimbabwe dollars determined by the official exchange rate,” says Crisis Group Africa Report titled: All That Glitters is Not Gold: Turmoil in Zimbabwe’s Mining Sector.

“But in the open market, the Zimbabwe dollar is worth less than half its official value. The discrepancy creates a gap between the price FPR pays and the world gold price, which is denominated solely in U.S. dollars.”

A report titled: Illicit gold markets in east and southern Africa by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (Global Initiative) reveals that gold buyers were selling between 10% and 30% of their gold to the FPR only to maintain their gold licences, with the rest being sold on the illicit market.

Major foreign buyers, often from South Africa, partner with Zimbabwean dealers to buy large quantities of gold on the illicit market, the report says.

Government officials have been also accused of having a hand in the illicit trade and smuggling gold out of the country.

The other issue fueling gold smuggling is the delay by the government to issue out mining licenses. When someone is not licensed, he/she would not risk selling gold to FPR, for fear of being arrested.

A limited number of gold centres across the country also fuels gold smuggling. Chegutu a well-known hub of gold activity does not have an FPR buying centre relying mainly on gold buying agents who are also known to be proponents of gold leakages.

Miners would rather sell their gold on the illicit market rather than travel long distances searching for FPR gold centres. FPR should establish more gold centres across the country especially where gold activities are concentrated.

The Ministry of Mines and Mining Development last year revealed plans to establish gold centres across the country to curb illegal leakages of bullion and promote the official sale to the state buyer FPR.

But presenting his mid-term budget review, Ncube said so far only five sites for service centres have been established.

The Zimbabwe Miners Federation (ZMF) has been calling on the government to expedite the setting up of gold service centres across the country to boost the production of the yellow metal.

How gold leaves the country

Global Initiative says smugglers are hiding smaller quantities of gold in clothing and headdresses, while larger amounts are stowed away in car glove compartments, spare wheels and any other parts of a vehicle that can be modified for smuggling purposes.

“Similarly, in Southern Africa, gold is easily smuggled from Zimbabwe into South Africa. Porous land borders make it easy for criminal groups to cross into South Africa where laundering opportunities and transport services are more readily available,” the report reads in part.

“While there are informal border crossings, the official Beitbridge border post remains a preferred route for gold smugglers. Smaller quantities of gold are hidden in clothing and headdresses, while larger amounts are stowed away in car glove compartments, spare wheels and any other parts of a vehicle that can be modified for smuggling purposes.”

On the Zimbabwe-South Africa border, both bus drivers and truckers are reported to smuggle gold.

Bars weighing between five and 20 kilograms are stuffed underneath truck cabins, inside battery compartments and emptied gasoline tankers.

“As a result, some major buyers have invested in both gold and trucking. For example, certain major gold dealers in Harare have invested in the gas business, enabling the use of gas haulage trucks with secret compartments to smuggle gold into South Africa,” it said.

On the borders, there appears to be a lack of capacity and will to stop gold smuggling.

For example, in Zimbabwe, only luggage is subject to scans by customs officials so travellers without luggage are unlikely to be searched, the report says.

The report also reveals that larger smuggling operations will also involve collusion between criminal actors and border officials.

Nearly 40% of gold mined in Matabeleland is believed to be smuggled directly to South Africa, it said.

In 2015, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) reported that the border was contributing to “… the most [gold] leakages that the country has ever experienced.”

The ease in which gold can be moved over the border makes it difficult to catch smugglers, Global Initiative says.

“It is reported that a smuggler will only be caught if the police have received a tip-off but they can easily pay a bribe to allow them to continue across the border.”

In other instances, the report revealed that gold is moved to South Africa through Botswana to avoid the heavily congested Beitbridge crossing.

A significant and growing amount of gold is also believed to be flown out of Harare airport to international transit and destination hubs, particularly the UAE, China and India and, to a lesser extent, Russia.

This route is suspected to be used by more powerful gold dealers and political elites.

“Indian buyers are allegedly the most likely to smuggle gold in this manner. There are also small gold flows between Zimbabwe and Mozambique in border regions, but the direction of the flows is unclear,” the report says.

What can be done to curb gold smuggling

As part of the recommendations to curb smuggling, the government must establish more gold centres across the country to curb illegal leakages of bullion and promote the official sale to FPR.

RBZ governor John Mangudya recently revealed that Zimbabwe was drafting legislation that will compel small-scale gold miners to register their operations as the southern African nation seeks to curb gold smuggling.

Hopefully, this would help.

FPR should also offer competitive prices.

Global Initiative suggests that criminal investigations should target the activities of key actors in the illicit gold trade, including senior government officials.

This could include increased support for financial intelligence units and financial investigations. By providing information and support, foreign governments and international law enforcement bodies can support efforts to identify and prosecute key individuals, companies and financial institutions linked to or involved in the illicit gold trade.

It also said law enforcement, including customs officials, can also target enforcement activity at major transit points.

Because international airports are key bottleneck points in supply chains, effective policing there will have a significant impact on illicit gold flows, it said.

“In addition, smugglers tend to favour major border crossings when moving large amounts of gold. Targeting key road border crossings may therefore also reduce the ease with which gold is smuggled out of source countries.”

“Private sector actors, in particular refinery and smelter-level programmes, should strive to responsibly source gold from source countries, as opposed to refusing to source product from high-risk areas or disengaging from artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) entirely,” the report says.

It said increasing the number of ASGM sourcing options will help to grow and regularize responsible ASGM gold supply.

Global Initiative also recommended that enforcement should also focus on transit and trade hubs, particularly the strengthening of enforcement controls at airports.

Mines and Mining Development Ministry’s slow pace of issuing mining titles is also a major contributory factor as it forces many to mine illegally which inturn diverts their gold to buyers who are most likely to push the commodity out of the country.

Govt urged to enact laws that protect women in mining

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Transparency International Zimbabwe legal officer Tracy Mutowekuziva Mafa has called for the government to enact laws and strengthen the legal framework to protect women in mining as they are remaining poor due to challenges caused by gender corruption.

Rudairo Mapuranga

Speaking at the Fourth Women Symposium on Extractives hosted by Zimbabwe Diamonds and Allied Workers Union (ZIDAWU) she said mining is a very male-dominated sector it, therefore, have men who use their masculinity to sabotage and elbow women.

Speaking at the same event Zimbabwe Lawyers Association Rutendo Magadzire presenting on Promoting a decent working environment said her organisation was working towards establishing equality for all. She said it was of importance to remove all negative cultural and social beliefs on women.

At the event, it was reviewed that women in mining are succumbing to corrupt processes of sextortion to access land, claims and many are joining politics by default to access resources.

 The Women Symposium of 2021 calls for reforming legal laws for a decent working environment for women in the mining sector of Zimbabwe.

New commodity exchange to drive US$12bn mining goal -Chitando

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Minister of Mines and Mining Development  Winston Chitando, has lauded the new commodity exchange, saying it will provide an extra window of revenue for the local mining sector.

Vongai Mbara

He made the remarks at a recent workshop between the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX) and the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX).

The two parties recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding.

Minister Chitando said the possibilities of trading in finished and semi-finished mineral products will result in the quicker realisation of a US$12 billion mining economy by 2023.

“With an efficient production, value addition and marketing structure, we will be able to make the industry even more lucrative for new exploration and expansion investment,” said Minister Chitando.

He added that the new exchange should benefit small-scale miners.

“We also have to look at how the exchange can assist our small-scale and artisanal miners. The contribution of this sector has always been phenomenal, but they are the least equipped and least empowered segment.

“We will, at some point, need to cascade the anticipated benefits of the commodity exchange to this sector, so that they are not left behind,” said Minister Chitando.

Gem Diamonds finds two high-quality stones at Letšeng

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Africa-focused Gem Diamonds (LON: GEMD) said on Monday it had dug up two Type II white diamonds at its iconic Letšeng mine in Lesotho.

One of the roughs is a 245-carat Type II white diamond. The other, found on the same day, is a 102-carat stone, the company noted.

Since acquiring the mine in 2006, Gem Diamonds has found five of the 20 largest white gem-quality diamonds ever recovered, which makes Letšeng the world’s highest dollar per carat diamond mine.

At an average elevation of 3,100 metres (10,000 feet) above sea level, the operation is also one of the world’s highest diamond mines.

The company recently decided to focus production efforts exclusively on Letšeng by selling its Botswana subsidiary to Okwa Diamond for only $4 million.

The diamond market came to a standstill at the height of the covid-19 pandemic, increasing worries that oversupply could hurt the sector for years. But surging purchases by intermediaries who cut, polish and trade stones has all but wiped-out miners’ stockpiles, even as Russia’s Alrosa and its closest competitor, Anglo American’s De Beers, have hiked prices.

“Rough diamonds stocks at miners are at minimal levels as supply structurally dropped, but jeweller demand is strong in all the key markets,” Alrosa warned last week.

The investment arm of VTB Group, one of Russia’s largest banks, estimates that global rough diamond output was down 19% in 2020 to 112 million carats. It expects 2021 production to be little changed as the depletion of Rio Tinto’s Argyle mine has offset so far production pick-up at the two world’s largest diamond producers

Mining.com

 

Tharisa achieves record quarterly output

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Platinum group metals (PGMs) and chrome concentrate producer Tharisa reports that the exciting developments with Salene Chrome, in the construction phase, as well as the progress on the development of Karo Platinum, will contribute to its growth trajectory over the next two years.

CEO Phoevos Pouroulis said the Vulcan ultrafine chrome processing plant is expected to increase recoveries of chrome concentrate to above 80 percent, thereby increasing chrome production by 25 percent to two-million tonnes.

Further, Salene Chrome is on track to start production in the first quarter of the 2022 financial year, while implementation studies have been completed for Karo Platinum.

“As we enter the next phase of the development of our business, Tharisa remains a key participant in the global transition to a low-carbon economy through the critical metals we produce.

“Not only will Tharisa contribute to this transition, we will deliver on our stated goals of reaching 30 percent reduction in emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050 through the extraordinary skills and initiatives of our own research and development team, as well as the adoption of leading technologies,” comments Pouroulis.

Meanwhile, Pouroulis said the Group’s Tharisa mine, in the North West (SA), achieved its highest production ever during the quarter ended September 30.

PGM output for the quarter increased to 43 700 oz of platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, osmium and gold (6E), compared with the 39 000 oz of 6E produced in the June quarter. Output was also higher than the 40 500 oz of 6E produced in the September 2020 quarter.

Chrome concentrate production, meanwhile, increased to 395 700 t for the quarter, compared with the 379 700 t produced in the June quarter and the 370 800 t produced in the September 2020 quarter.

“This performance follows several strategic initiatives to optimise the operation. These have built a sustainable platform for Tharisa to deliver further significant growth over the long life of our openpit operations,” says Pouroulis.

Further, PGM production for the financial year ended September 30 increased to 157 800 oz of 6E, compared with the 142 100 oz of 6E produced in the 2020 financial year.

Chrome concentrate production for the full-year increased to 1.51-million tonnes, compared with the 1.34-million tonnes produced the year before.

JSE- and LSE-listed Tharisa notes that the record production had further strengthened the company’s balance sheet, with the company having ended the financial year with a cash balance of US$83,4-million and a positive net cash position of US$47,9-million.

It expects to produce between 165 000 oz and 175 000 oz of 6E PGMs and between 1.75- million and 1.85-million tonnes of chrome concentrate in the 2022 financial year.

“With the 2022 full-year production guidance provided for the Tharisa mine, we see further growth particularly from the investment made in the Vulcan plant, which is in the cold commissioning phase and will produce chrome concentrates before the end of 2021.

 

 

 

Business Weekly

Platinum outlook: Do we need to buckle up?

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The platinum group metals (PGM) sector has performed very well in general over the past year on the back of a strong rebound in global car sales. Since the end of April, however, we’ve seen a dramatic slump in the prices of these shares.

In our view, the recent price corrections are overdone. The longer-term prospects for the sector remain uncertain, but we’re still upbeat about its potential over the medium term.

Surge… and slump

Since July last year, the prices of platinum, palladium and rhodium have surged following a significant uptick in global car sales, which has more than offset a supply recovery after Covid-19-related stoppages. Since the end of April, however, prices have declined sharply off high levels.

At the time of writing, palladium was down more than 30 percent to below US$2 000 an ounce, platinum was down 25 percent to below US$1 000 an ounce and rhodium had declined by more than 50 percent to about US$14 000 an ounce.

These are massive corrections, but it’s worth noting that despite these falls, palladium and rhodium prices are still very high (while platinum prices remain low) by historical standards

The recent price corrections are likely to be due to lower car production on the back of a global chip shortage. With almost all palladium and rhodium destined for the auto market, it makes sense that the corrections have been more pronounced in the case of these two metals.

In our estimation, the impact on new car production has already been more than 8 million units, in the context of a total market of 92 million new cars sold in 2019.

This has resulted in car inventory levels declining to multi-decade lows and a boom in the second-hand car market.

The situation remains fluid, but this does appear to be a temporary problem which is likely to resolve itself towards the end of this year and into early next year.

There should also be some pent-up demand as car makers restock their inventory pipelines.

The more salient question is whether the acceleration of new electric vehicle sales will affect the medium-term investment case for PGMs.

In our view, the outlook until roughly the middle of the decade still looks quite favourable for the basket of metals, with the demand side still strong. We expect higher loadings per vehicle to more than offset lower internal combustion engine sales.

Supply growth is also still muted after a decade of underinvestment. Current projects largely serve to offset the decline in the existing base over the next few years.

Our best assessment is therefore that the market is currently in a sweet spot and that we’re likely to still see prices hovering comfortably above marginal cost levels for the next few years.

Longer-term outlook

The longer-term outlook for PGMs is more uncertain since it’s now clear that electric vehicles will become the dominant drivetrain.

Some industry estimates are for new battery electric vehicle sales to be as high as 40 percent of total new car sales in 2030, up from about 3 percent in 2020.

This has a big negative impact on the demand for PGMs — especially palladium and rhodium — as a battery electric vehicle doesn’t need a catalyst.

To compensate for this, in our price estimates for 2025 onwards, we use much more conservative estimates for palladium and rhodium than current spot prices.

The potential offsetting factor to the loss of demand due to an increase in electric vehicles is the rise of hydrogen as an alternative fuel, where PGM-based catalysts are also needed.

While the outlook remains unclear, it does seem as if governments now realise that hydrogen needs to be part of the solution if the world is to reach its emission reduction targets.

Increased hydrogen use will therefore at least partly offset the impact of declining auto demand.

Platinum seems to be the metal that performs best in this application, which could reverse the current scenario where palladium is in deficit and platinum in surplus.

South African producers typically produce a lot more platinum than palladium, so would in general prefer higher platinum prices.

Dividends and buybacks

The past year saw PGM companies making huge profits and largely returning this to shareholders by way of dividends and buybacks. Northam essentially bought back 29 percent of its shares through the accelerated completion of its Zambezi BEE deal, which has been very value-accretive to all stakeholders.

Amplats has paid out dividends of R220 per share since August last year. That is about 16 percent of the company’s current market cap.

In our view, the company share prices never gave a lot of credit for the very high palladium and rhodium prices seen earlier this year, but still corrected quite significantly off their recent highs.

Given that we foresee a still robust medium-term outlook for PGM metals, we think the near-term price corrections are overdone and pose an interesting opportunity.

While there’s still much uncertainty regarding the longer-term outlook, even after the recent spot price corrections, most of the producers are likely to come close to paying back their current market capitalisations in dividends by mid-decade if current prices hold.

We’re therefore of the view that the risk/reward ratio is more skewed to the upside for PGM miners. — Moneyweb