Zimbabwe has recorded its first trade surplus in six years, thanks largely to stronger mineral exports led by gold, nickel, and ferrochrome, Mining Zimbabwe can report.
By Ryan Chigoche
According to the latest trade data from ZimStat, the country posted a US$7 million surplus in August 2025, reversing July’s US$10.2 million deficit. Exports rose slightly to US$878.2 million, while imports fell to US$871.1 million.
Mining once again anchored Zimbabwe’s external earnings, accounting for over 80% of total exports. Gold alone brought in US$462.7 million, representing more than half of export receipts, while nickel mattes generated US$122.2 million and ferrochrome added US$44 million.
The modest trade surplus was driven almost entirely by the mining sector. While tobacco exports reached US$70 million, it was gold and base metals that had the biggest influence. Improved output from large-scale gold producers and firming international prices helped lift receipts, while ferrochrome and nickel remained steady performers.
Foreign currency inflows climbed to US$10.4 billion by August, up from US$8.2 billion in 2024, supported mainly by gold and platinum sales. The mining sector’s strong showing also helped boost reserves to US$900 million by September, up from US$700 million in June the highest level since dollarisation.
Despite the positive headline, analysts warn that the surplus remains fragile and heavily commodity-driven. Zimbabwe’s export profile is still concentrated in minerals, leaving the economy exposed to price swings, operational disruptions, and global demand shifts.
With over 80% of foreign earnings coming from mining, any drop in global metal prices could quickly reverse the current gains.
Economists also note that the surplus was aided by the government’s maize import ban, which slashed the import bill from an average US$55 million to just US$1 million in August. Once the ban is lifted, import pressures are likely to resurface, narrowing the surplus.
Historically, every period of trade stability in Zimbabwe has been tied to mining performance from gold and nickel in the 1980s to platinum and ferrochrome in the 2010s. The trend remains consistent: when mining thrives, trade balances improve; when it slows, deficits widen.
However, this dominance also exposes a structural weakness the lack of value addition and export diversification. Zimbabwe continues to ship out largely unprocessed minerals, forfeiting billions in potential revenue that could be generated through local beneficiation and refining.
Outlook: Turning a Short-Term Gain into Long-Term Stability
Experts say sustaining the trade surplus will depend on how effectively Zimbabwe leverages its current mining boom. Expanding beneficiation capacity, improving power supply to mining operations, and maintaining consistent mining policies are viewed as key to turning this short-term gain into a lasting recovery.
With new projects in lithium, platinum, and gold expanding across the country, the potential for sustained surpluses exists but only if the economy moves beyond raw exports.
Otherwise, the August surplus could end up as another brief recovery, similar to 2019, when mineral exports rose but quickly fell back due to policy inconsistency and falling global metal prices.
