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Zimbabwe’s mining sector is set for a significant upswing in 2026, driven by attractive commodity prices and ongoing expansion projects, according to the latest State of the Mining Industry Report presented by Prof. Albert Makochekanwa, Mining Zimbabwe can report.
By Rudairo Mapuranga
While executive confidence has surged, the report underscores that persistent challenges in infrastructure, foreign currency access, and fiscal policy threaten to cap the sector’s full potential.
The comprehensive survey, which gathers views from mining executives for planning purposes, paints a picture of an industry on the rise. The overall mining business confidence index has improved to a positive 8.4, a marked increase from the previous year, reflecting widespread optimism about the year ahead.
The report highlights several key indicators pointing towards a strong performance in 2026:
Surge in Mineral Revenue: Mineral revenue is projected to reach $7.5 billion in 2026, up from an expected $7 billion at the close of 2025 and $5.9 billion in 2024. This growth is attributed to a combination of increased output and anticipated rises in international prices for key commodities like platinum group metals (PGMs), gold, and lithium.
Increased Mineral Output: The overall mineral output is forecast to grow by an average of 6%. Prof. Makochekanwa provided a detailed baseline projection for gold, expecting an increase from 47,000 kg in 2025 to 50,000 kg in 2026, with the potential to reach 53,000 kg if supportive policy changes are implemented.
Record-High Capacity Utilisation: The average capacity utilisation for the industry is expected to climb to 95% in 2026, up from 88% in 2025. Some sub-sectors, notably PGMs and coal, are already operating at 100% capacity.
Profitability and Employment: Executives are generally optimistic about the profitability of their projects, with a measured index of 7. This positive outlook is also expected to translate into more jobs, with employment prospects showing a measured increase of 6.5.
Despite the bullish forecasts, the presentation did not shy away from the significant headwinds facing the industry. Prof. Makochekanwa identified several “key constraints” that mining executives believe require urgent attention:
Power Supply Deficits: Electricity was highlighted as the most critical bottleneck. The mining industry loses approximately 10% of its potential output due to power outages. With the demand for electricity from the sector expected to rise from 750 megawatts to 880 megawatts in 2026, a consistent and adequate power supply was cited as a non-negotiable requirement for growth.
Foreign Currency Shortfalls: Access to foreign currency remains a major concern, with executives pessimistic about prospects for 2026. These shortfalls are estimated to cause a 4% loss in potential output and hamper the industry’s ability to import essential operational inputs.
Fiscal and Investment Environment: The mining fiscal framework is viewed pessimistically, with an index of minus 10. Executives expressed concern that the government may introduce new taxes or increase existing ones. Furthermore, the high cost of doing business, infrastructure gaps, and difficulties in raising offshore capital due to perceived country risk are stifling investment competitiveness.
Prof. Makochekanwa specifically noted that for positive policy statements to be effective, they must be backed by concrete statutory instruments. “Implementers in Zimbabwe just say, ‘can we see where the instrument is?’” he stated, urging policymakers to provide the necessary legal documents to support reforms.
The report also detailed the industry’s efforts in Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) and local content development, areas of increasing global importance.
Mining companies reported that they are planning to spend an average of 11% of their revenue on ESG initiatives in 2026. These measures include adopting environmental rehabilitation plans, investing in renewable energy, and implementing reforestation programs. On community investment, companies are currently spending up to 2% of their revenues on Corporate Social Investment (CSI) projects, focusing on infrastructure like schools and clinics, education, health, and sports.
On local content, the report noted a shared view between government and stakeholders that current levels are still low. While mining companies are undertaking initiatives to support local enterprise development, suppliers face challenges competing due to the “proliferation of foreign products,” poor payment turnaround times, and issues with stock management.
Prof. Makochekanwa summed up the sentiment: “The mining industry of 2026 has improved compared to 2025… We are looking forward to all the support to unlock the full potential and maximise the contribution of the sector to the economy.” The success of the coming year appears to hinge on a collaborative effort to address the persistent constraints while capitalising on the favourable market conditions.
