Economists have warned Zimbabwe against relying on gold, platinum group metals (PGMs) and lithium to sustain mining growth as production of several other minerals continues to decline despite strong export earnings, Mining Zimbabwe can report.
By Ryan Chigoche
The warning comes as Zimbabwe’s mining sector continues to post strong export earnings, with government figures showing mineral exports reached US$5.73 billion in the first half of 2026, driven largely by gold, PGMs and lithium.
But the strength of the headline export figures masks an uneven production picture across the sector. Data from the Ministry of Mines and Mining Development’s Research Department show chrome production fell 61.7% in the first quarter of 2026, while nickel declined 52%, copper 52.5%, cobalt 66.6% and diamond production 44% compared with the same period in 2025.
The contrasting performance is raising questions about how broad-based Zimbabwe’s mining growth really is, and whether the sector can sustain its momentum if conditions weaken in the commodities currently driving earnings.
Speaking to Mining Zimbabwe, Morgan & Co investment analyst Kudakwashe Taimo said the divergence between export receipts and production across the sector points to an increasing dependence on a small group of commodities.
“Zimbabwe’s strong mineral export earnings are encouraging, but the divergence between rising export receipts and declining production in several minerals suggests that growth is being driven more by favourable prices and a few dominant commodities, particularly gold, PGMs and lithium, than by broad-based expansion across the mining sector.”
That concentration, Taimo said, creates a vulnerability for an economy that relies heavily on mining for foreign currency.
“While this has supported foreign currency inflows, reserves and ZiG stability so far, it raises questions about the sustainability of mining-led growth if global commodity prices soften or production in the dominant minerals slows.”
The concern, therefore, is not simply about the performance of individual minerals, but about the resilience of the wider export economy. Taimo said Zimbabwe needs to use the current strength in mining to expand production across other minerals while retaining more value locally.
“To build a more resilient export economy, Zimbabwe needs to diversify both its mineral and non-mineral export base by incentivising production of other minerals, accelerating local mineral beneficiation, improving power and transport infrastructure, ensuring a predictable policy environment, and supporting value-added manufacturing and agro-processing.”
While Taimo’s focus is on broadening the country’s mineral and export base, renowned economist Eddie Cross told Mining Zimbabwe that diversification will have limited impact unless mining also feeds into wider industrial development.
“Producing and exporting minerals will not make a country rich. It might provide the vehicle for doing so, but not much more. It is industry that creates employment and value.”
That emphasis on what happens beyond the mine gate was also evident at the recently concluded Mine Entra 2026 in Bulawayo, where policymakers and industry players examined how mining can support wider economic transformation through stronger value chains, beneficiation, local supply chains and downstream industries.
For Zimbabwe, that means the diversification challenge extends beyond finding new mineral projects. It also requires building processing, manufacturing and supply industries capable of capturing more value from resources extracted locally.
The country’s push for lithium beneficiation provides one example of this shift, while similar opportunities exist across chrome, PGMs, base metals and other mineral segments.
Turning that potential into sustained industrial growth, however, will require the conditions needed to attract long-term investment.
Taimo pointed to reliable power and transport infrastructure, policy predictability and investment incentives as critical to developing new projects and expanding existing operations.
For policymakers, the challenge is to ensure that the strength of gold, PGMs and lithium becomes a platform for broader mineral development and industrialisation, rather than deepening Zimbabwe’s dependence on a narrow group of commodities.
