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Sibanye makes another bold call on platinum price

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The world’s No. 1 platinum miner said the price of the metal could climb more than 80% over the next four to five years as the global economy recovers and supply dwindles.

That forecast comes as demand for platinum-group metals has already rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Sibanye Stillwater CEO Neal Froneman said in an interview from his farm in South Africa’s Limpopo province.
Platinum has almost doubled from an 18-year low in March amid supply disruptions and a revival in China’s auto industry, which uses the metal in pollution-control devices.

 

“Platinum has only just started to re-rate and it will continue,” Froneman said. “There is no reason why platinum will not eventually trade at $2,000 an ounce and probably even higher.”

It’s not Froneman’s first bold call. When the South African dealmaker acquired Stillwater Mining Co. four years ago, critics lined up to say he had overpaid for the US palladium producer. Since then, the price of palladium has almost quadrupled, allowing Sibanye to resume dividends and repay debt.

Platinum will be supported by its increasing use in hydrogen fuel cells, while automakers in China and North America are starting to switch the metal in for more expensive palladium in autocatalysts, Froneman said. New technology developed by BASF SE — with backing from Sibanye and Impala Platinum Holdings — to partially replace palladium in autocatalysts could boost platinum demand by at least 300 000 oz/y, he said.

“Substitution has taken off very well in China and the regulatory environment there is a lot more flexible,” Froneman said.

Froneman isn’t alone in his optimism for platinum. The metal could trade at around $1 500/oz in 2022, according to Georgette Boele, a senior precious metals strategist at ABN Amro Bank. The metal traded just above $1 100/oz on Thursday.

“Slowly but surely the stars are aligning for this precious metal,” Boele said in a note on January 6.

As for rhodium, the world’s priciest precious metal that climbed to a record on Thursday, its rally could continue, according to Froneman. There’s still a “substantial” shortfall, said the CEO of Sibanye, which is the biggest rhodium supplier.

“There is no reason for rhodium and palladium prices to come back and there is every reason for the platinum price to increase,” he said.

(By Felix Njini) Bloomberg News

Lucara kicks off 2021 with 341-carat white diamond find

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Canada’s Lucara Diamond (TSX: LUC) has found an unbroken 341-carat white gem-quality rock at its prolific Karowe mine in Botswana, with analysts estimating it could fetch more than $10 million.

The Vancouver-based miner said the diamond was recovered over the Christmas period from milling of ore coming from the south western quadrant of Karowe’s South Lobe.

The diamond is the 54th stone over 200 carats recovered at Karowe since it began commercial operations in 2012.

The find builds on previous historic recoveries which include the 342-carat Queen of the Kalahari, the 549-carat Sethunya, the 1,109-carat Lesedi La Rona found in 2015, and the 1758-carat Sewelô, recovered in 2019.

Beyond Sewelô, the only larger diamond ever unearthed is the 3,106-carat Cullinan Diamond, discovered in South Africa in 1905. The Cullinan was later cut into smaller stones, some of which now form part of British royal family’s crown jewels.

Revenue lift potential 

BMO Capital Markets analyst Ray Raj said that based on past prices for similar size stones, the new diamond could sell for more than $10 million.

“The continued recovery of the significant high value stones from the South Lobe further highlights the importance of the Karowe underground expansion,” he wrote.

Raj also highlighted a “significant” revenue potential for Lucara this year, with the sales process from the 549-carat and the 998-carat diamonds recovered in 2020 expected to be completed in 2021.

Botswana renewed Lucara’s mining license in early January for another 25 years. The move allows the company to move the Karowe’s underground expansion project to its execution phase.

Moving the operation underground will cost $514 million. It is expected to take five years and extend Karowe’s productive life by 20 years — until 2040.

The development will allow Lucara to exploit the highest value part of the orebody first and generate over $5.25 billion in gross revenue.

Mining.com

Upgrade of mining cadastre system takes stage

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MINERS across the board are eagerly waiting for the Government’s plan to introduce the mining sector research and adoption of a computer-based cadastre system that is meant to expedite the process of mining administration and mineral accountability, as indicated in the National Development Strategy-1 (NDS-1).

The Minister of Mines and Mining Development Winston Chitando had, as of late last year, announced that the Government will make a commitment to institute the digital system by 2021. The minister assured the nation that by the start of this year, processes to upgrade the system would have commenced.

An electronic mining cadastre is seen as the most efficient mode that will unlock mineral value and curb corruption in the allocation of mining claims. In the National Development Strategy-1 (NDS-1) economic blueprint, Finance and Economic Development Minister, Professor Mthuli Ncube underscored the fact that the mining cadastre will be the anchor in unlocking the potential of the country’s mineral resources and beneficiation.

“NDS-1 aims to enhance mineral beneficiation and value addition through creation of value chains to anchor the national industrialisation policy,” said Minister Ncube in the economic blueprint.

The NDS-1 specifies that mineral beneficiation will be supported by mining research and adoption of information, communication technologies (ICTs), with emphasis of the computerised mining cadastre. Local miners view the computer based system as one that will expedite the dissemination of information pertaining to mineral rights, records, mines geographical location, ownership, time and validity of mineral rights in the country.

The shift to the new system is underway, as Minister Chitando revealed last week on Wednesday in an interview with Sunday News.

“We have already started the work toward migrating from the manual cadastre to the computerized system. This is part of the Government’s drive to add value and beneficiation in the mining sector and to underpin the sector’s vision to be a US$12 billion economy by 2023,” said Minister Chitando.

Zimbabwe Environmental Lawyers Association (Zela) has put it on record that delays in upgrading the cadastre system was detrimental to miners. Zela cites lack of transparency in the industry with regards to multiple mining claim ownership.

Consequently, a successful shift to the modern cadastre system was seen as a conduit for the mining industry to reach and surpass its targeted 7,7 percent growth by end of 2021. In the year 2020, mining was placed on a projected contraction of 4,1 percent.

 

The Sunday News

China’s rare earth boom to pause for lunar new year, supply to tighten

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(ATF) Prices of mainstream rare earths in China have been on a rapid rise this year. Wind data shows that as of January 13, the A-share rare earth index has risen nearly 12% in 2021.

Thanks partly to a complete supply chain system and strong epidemic prevention and control capabilities, China’s domestic manufacturing industry ushered in a sharp rebound in the second half of 2020. Rare earth industry prices are also going up, although the price of rare earth magnetic materials temporarily adjusted in early December. China’s Non-ferrous Metal Association says the trend of subsequent price increases should continue through 2021.

At the beginning of 2020, metal manufacturers were not very optimistic about their prospects for the year. Some companies stopped or reduced production and implemented relocation plans, causing a slight shortage of raw materials since May. But downstream demand for magnetic materials increased significantly in the second half of the year. The home appliance industry saw large growth and demand for new energy vehicles and wind power turbines has dramatically increased. Containment at both ends led to frantically rising raw material prices in the short term.

According to industry insiders quoted by China Securities Journal, the spot supply of rare earths is tight, and the pace of supplier deliveries has slowed down, creating a “seller’s market”. Rare earth prices are expected to start a long-term rising trend in 2021, and the profits of leading companies in the upper reaches of the rare earth industry chain are expected to be high.

‘Seller’s market’ 

According to data from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, on January 13, among the mainstream heavy rare earths, the average price of dysprosium oxide was reported at 2,030 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.6% this year, while the average price of terbium oxide was 8,050 yuan/kg, an increase of 11% this year. Among the mainstream varieties of light rare earths, the average price of neodymium praseodymium oxide on January 13 was reported at 432,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6% this year.

“Affected by the epidemic, the company’s output will not be adjusted in the short term, and it is currently a seller’s market. At the same time, downstream demand for new energy vehicles is strong, and the demand for dysprosium and terbium is increasing, but the domestic annual mining and smelting indicators have a fixed quota,” Hu Yan, a precious metals analyst, told China Securities Journal.

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on January 13, some 248,000 new energy vehicles were sold in December 2020, which is an increase of 49.5% year-on-year. In 2020, some 1.367 million new energy vehicles were sold, which is an increase of 10.9% year-on-year.

Mainstream rare earth suppliers raised their listing prices at the same time. The listing price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide announced by Northern Rare Earth on January 8 this year was 441,000 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 13,000 yuan/ton from the listing price on December 9, 2020. And Southern Rare Earth said on January 11, the listing price of terbium oxide was 7.2-7.3 million yuan/ton, while the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.03-2.05 million yuan/ton. On December 28, 2020, the listing price of terbium oxide was 6.4-6.5 million yuan/ton, and that for dysprosium oxide was 1.96-1.98 million yuan/ton.

Industry chain companies benefit

As market demand is strong, rare earth industry supply chain enterprises have benefited.

For example, Jinli Permanent Magnet is expected to achieve a net profit of 235 million to 251 million yuan in 2020, an increase of 50%-60% year-on-year. The company stated that during the reporting period, its operating income in the field of new energy vehicles and auto parts increased by nearly 50% year-on-year, and the operating income in the field of energy-saving inverter air conditioners rose by more than 100% year-on-year. It began mass production in the 3C field, and operating income in other sectors such as wind power generation, robotics and ‘intelligent’ manufacturing, plus energy-saving elevators remained stable. The company expects that its operating income in 2020 will increase by 40%-50% compared with 2019, reaching 2.376-2.545 billion yuan.

Mining investment value

Industry sources pointed out that the current market supply situation has not changed much, and the company’s output has not increased much. Taking into account the impact of factors such as the approach of the Spring Festival, rare earth production will decline in February, and it is expected that supply will become more tight, and thus supporting a further increase in rare earth prices.

CITIC Securities pointed out that demand for the largest proportion of downstream output value of the rare earth industry chain is NdFeB (neodymium magnet material). As downstream demand for automobiles, wind power, and energy-saving inverter air conditioners continues to pick up, the consumption of neodymium iron boron is expected to grow further, which will continue to drive the consumption of upstream raw materials such as praseodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide.

The trend of strict control of the upstream supply of rare earths is unchanged, and the demand for replenishment of the industrial chain will continue in the near future. Rare earth prices are expected to continue to rise in the first quarter, CITIC said. It is estimated that the peak of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in 2021 may exceed 600,000 yuan/ton, while the high for terbium oxide may exceed 10 million yuan/ton. Given the improvement in the strategic value of mineral resources, CITIC recommended users to continue to paying attention to the strategic allocation value of the rare earth sector.

 

Asian Times Financial

China’s 2020 copper imports hit record high

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China imported record volumes of unwrought copper and copper products on an annual basis in 2020, while its annual exports of aluminum fell to the lowest since 2017.

Imports of unwrought copper and copper products for the year came in at 6.68 million tonnes, customs data showed on Thursday, up a third from 2019 and extending the annual record notched well before the end of the year, on the back of a quick recovery from the coronavirus epidemic.

December imports, however, slumped for a third consecutive month to 512,332 tonnes, as construction and manufacturing demand was not enough to offset the closure of an arbitrage window that made 2020 a record year for shipments into China, the world’s top consumer of the metal.

EXPORTS OF UNWROUGHT ALUMINUM AND ALUMINUM PRODUCTS WERE 456,130 TONNES IN DECEMBER, ITS HIGHEST MONTHLY LEVELS SINCE MARCH

That was down 8.7% from 561,310.7 tonnes in November and its lowest monthly level since May.

“December imports were within expectations, I think it will continue decreasing in January from a high base,” said He Tianyu, China copper demand analyst at CRU Group.

He said the record 2020 imports were due to state reserve stockpiling as well as China’s quick recovery from the coronavirus epidemic that opened up an arbitrage between London and Shanghai copper prices.

“Covid-19 also transferred some overseas orders of home appliances and medical products to China, which pushed up the China imports.”

The arbitrage between Shanghai and London copper prices that made imports so favourable in mid-2020 remained closed, reducing the incentive to ship metal.

China’s General Administration of Customs also said that imports of copper concentrate, or partially processed ore, were 1.89 million tonnes last month, up 3% from 1.831 million tonnes in November, but down from 1.928 million tonnes a year earlier.

On a full-year basis, concentrate imports missed a new record, with shipments totalling 21.77 million tonnes amid tight mine supply due to coronavirus-related curbs even as China’s copper smelting capacity continued to expand.

Meanwhile, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 456,130 tonnes in December, customs said, its highest monthly levels since March. That was also up 7.6% from 424,025.3 tonnes in November, but down 4.6% year-on-year.

Full-year shipments were down from 2019 at 4.86 million tonnes, their lowest annual total since 2017 after the economic impact of the virus around the world hit demand for Chinese metal_Reuters

Iron ore price turns higher again after record China imports

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Iron ore prices climbed back up to near decade highs on Thursday after customs data showed record-breaking imports by China, which forges more steel than the rest of the world combined.

According to Fastmarkets MB, benchmark 62% Fe fines imported into Northern China (CFR Qingdao) were changing hands for $172.36 a tonne, up 1.3% on the day.

The steelmaking raw material has already enjoyed 7%-plus gains in 2021 after an 80% rise last year and is now trading at levels last seen in September 2011. The benchmark hit an all-time high of $191.70 in February that year.

The high-grade Brazilian index (65% Fe fines) is back near record high at $194.30 a tonne after rising 77% over the past year.

Despite a 45% year-on-year decline in shipments in December to 96.75 million tonnes, for the full year China imported 1.17 billion tonnes of iron ore, customs data showed on Thursday. That handily beat the previous record of 1.075 billion tonnes set in 2017.

“The jump came as overseas consumption (of iron ore) plunged, while China had strong demand,” Wang Yingwu, chief analyst with Huatai Futures in Beijing told Reuters.

Reuters

Mine Workers Demand US$200 Covid-19 Monthly Risk Allowances

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MINE workers are demanding a minimum US$200 per month as Covid-19 risk allowances arguing the mining sector is one of the key economic cogs not spared from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

The Zimbabwe Diamond and Allied Minerals Workers (ZDAMWU) general-secretary Justice Chinhema writing to National Employment Council for the Mining Industry Tuesday demanded that employees in the sector must be given Covid-19 risk allowances urgently.

“Mine industry workers have become foot soldiers of our country’s economy hence the government has declared the sector an essential service sector,” Chinhema said.

He said the disbursement of the monthly Covid-19 allowance must be treated as a matter of urgency.

“With the rise in reported cases of Covid-19 in Zimbabwe, reports from our members across the country and statistics confirming that most mines now have positive cases, it is high time as a sector we introduce Covid-19 allowance and massive tests across all mines to motivate workers to work under this difficult and hazardous environment and contain the ever increasing spread of Covid-19,” said Chinhema.

He said if the government’s US$12 billion mining economy was to be achieved, there was need to motivate workers in the sector.

“With the US$12 billion tag for the industry, workers need to be motivated than to work under protest. With the imminent 2021 first quarter wage negotiations, the mining industry having been accorded essential service status, it’s time we include the Covid-19 allowance over and above the minimum wage like what all other essential service providers are doing, the government included.”

Chinhema said mine workers were proposing a minimum of US$200 per month as Covid-19 allowance across the board subject to review from time to time.

“This is not about money but a risk allowance associated with the risk that is involved during a pandemic.

“Besides the allowance, workers are expecting a wage increase in the range of US$400 to US$600 equivalent or 100% US$. The prices of basic goods and services charged around the mining districts in Zimbabwe are mostly pegged in US$ especially districts that have no big supermarkets,” he said.

Chinhema added ZDAMWU was compiling statistics indicating the needs of an ordinary mine worker and his family including basic food items and social services.

“Any wage negotiations that do not use actuals as required for a worker to survive will not be accepted because it’s a slave wage. Mine workers have always said they deserve a wage that is in line with the actual value of minerals mined and in line to other regional scales.”

 

New Zimbabwe

Another fatal mine accident hits Zimbabwe

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Two mine workers have lost their lives in an accident which occurred along Angwa River in Hurungwe district, as mishaps involving small scale miners continue unabated.

Over the past few months, Zimbabwe has been experiencing mine accidents, mostly at illegally run small-scale mines that that have resulted in the death of several miners.

The accident along Angwa River was reported to the police and the other relevant authorities in the area including MP Hurungwe North, Ability Gandawa, who assisted with some funds to rescue some of the trapped bodies.

But, the accident, which happened in December 2020, was not reported to the Ministry of Mines and Mining Development, as players feared the mining area would come under government spotlight, insiders said this week.

The area is known for riverbed mining for close to two decades, despite government banning alluvial and riverbed mining several years ago.

A well-placed source and an eyewitness confirmed to Business Times during a visit to the accident site that the mine accident claimed two people.

But it was not yet clear if there were still more people trapped inside.

“Gandawa is aware of this incident and even reports were made to the police, but this matter was swept under the carpet for fear of spotlight because top people are protecting the place as they are doing alluvial

and riverbed mining,” a source told Business Times.

He added: “Top people in government and security services have been protecting this area to advance their alluvial gold mining activities and this case could not be reported.

Villagers were also gagged from reporting this matter hence the reason why it could not receive any publicity. No post-mortem was done and the two deceased who were brothers were buried just like that.”

The area is believed to have rich deposits of gold. It is estimated that lucky gold panners make close to US$500 per day.

Gandawa confirmed the mine accident.

“ZRP was made aware of the incident and they even attended the funeral. I would want to admit that the issue was never taken far,” Gandawa told Business Times.

Gandawa admitted the river has attracted a lot of mining interests despite the ban on riverbed gold mining.

Mines and Mining Development permanent secretary, Onismo Moyo, said the Provincial mining director, for Mashonaland West Province has not been made aware of the accident.

He promised to revert with facts.

He had, however, not done so by the time of going to print.

Zimbabwe Miners Federation spokesperson Dosman Mangisi said the association had not been notified of the accident and he would have to check with the miners on the ground and confirm. He had not done so by the time of going to press.

Since September last year, Zimbabwe experienced series of fatal accidents that have occurred mainly

at abandoned gold mines around the country, with more than a dozen people still trapped underground and unlikely to be retrieved alive.

In November last year six illegal miners, including four from one family, were trapped underground when a mine collapsed in Matshetshe, Esigodini, and Matabeleland South Province.

During the same month another mine disaster occurred at Ran Mine in Bindura, Mashonaland Central Province, resulting in at least 10 illegal gold miners trapped underground after a mine shaft collapse.

In December, three miners died when two ore wagons fell into an inclined mineshaft and crushed the miners at Kunyu mine, Mudzi in Mashonaland East Province.

Mines and Mining Development minister, Winston Chitando, has expressed concern over the rising number of mine accidents.

Business Times

ZESA plan to pay coal miners in forex reversed

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Government has set aside an agreement requiring ZESA Holdings to pay half of coal supplies in foreign currency, Energy and Power Development Minister Zhemu Soda said.

In April last year, the power utility and coal miners agreed that 50 percent of coal be paid in foreign currency, but the agreement had not yet been implemented due to incapacitation of ZESA.

The deal had been hammered to support miners, that badly needed hard currency to sustain operations in light of forex shortages that were prevailing at the time.

Availability of foreign currency has since improved after Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe launched the foreign currency auction system in June last year, with more than US$350 million having been allocated to various sectors of the economy.

This has brought stability to the exchange rate and prices.

ZESA is being paid in foreign currency by some exporters, particularly mining companies and the deal entailed coal miners be partly paid in forex to support operations.

This relates to continuous recapitalisation and procurement of spares, fuel and consumables.

ZESA consumes about 90 percent of coal produced locally which is fed into its 730MW thermal plant in Hwange and three other small stations in Harare, Bulawayo and Munyati.

“We would have wanted that to happen but ZESA does not have that kind of money,” Minister Soda told Business Weekly in an interview on Wednesday. “I met the miners and I was clear that ZESA is even struggling to settle some of its liabilities in local currency. Certainly, attempting to pay in forex will be disastrous.”

Minister Soda said while ZESA was being paid in foreign currency by some exporters, some are struggling given coronavirus induced international trade disruptions.

He said given that the agreement was reached before the introduction of the foreign currency auction system, access to foreign currency had since “greatly improved.”

“Forex is now obtainable on the auction system and we are encouraging them to receive payments in Zimbabwean dollars,” Minister Soda said. “As a ministry, we can assist to write recommendations so that they can be prioritised. Remember, ZESA has other obligations that need to be paid in foreign currency such as imports and if we put pressure on the little forex they have, we will be switched off.”

ZESA has been struggling to pay coal miners in local currency and the debt at some point ballooned to over $1,2 billion. The power utility experienced a severe deterioration in cash flows between March and September last year and this was largely due to a sub economic tariff, which had not been adjusted upwards in line with inflation and exchange rate.

The coal miners had warned of severe disruption of the commodity to thermal stations, arguing that failure by Zesa to clear the debt was incapacitating the producers.

This was going to have an adverse impact on the country’s power situation.

So dire was the situation that the power utility had at some point approached Treasury for a bailout.

In an interview on Wednesday, Coal Producers Association chairman Ray Mutokonyi said there was an improvement in payments, with schedules now between 30 and 50 days, from 90 to 100 days before.

“There is a huge improvement in terms of payments for coal supplies,” said Mutokonyi. “Zesa has substantially reduced its debt.”

Apart from thermal stations, Zesa owns Kariba hydroelectric plant with a capacity of 1050 MW.

It also imports power, mainly from South Africa and Mozambique.

 

Business Weekly

Prospect not concerned about Zimbabwe sovereign risk

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Prospect Resources says it will forge ahead with its Arcadia Lithium project in Zimbabwe despite the country’s risk profile and has put in place measures to minimise potential impact of the sovereign risk.

Assays carried out last year have confirmed that Arcadia has the potential to be among few lithium mines in the world to supply premium priced spodumene and petalite used in the production glass and ceramics.

Zimbabwe’s sovereign risks relate particularly to illegal sanctions by western countries and huge external debt.

These have scared off some investors which views Zimbabwe as unsafe destination for investment.

The group incoming non-executive chairman Mr Mark Wheatley said they were excited by the prospect of “high purity products” from Arcadia, and have put in place measures to insulate themselves from sovereign risk in the country of operation.

“Prospect will provide customers diversity away from Australian supply, the ability to deliver high purity products and the upside of staged development with market expansion.” “The company has also developed strategies to manage Zimbabwe sovereign risks,” he said.

Prospect acquired its now flagship Arcadia Lithium project mid-2016. The project has a anticipated annual supply of up to 100 000 dmt per annum of ultra-low iron petalite concentrate.

The Australian firm is making headway towards bringing Arcadia to full production. By the close of 2019, the group had agreed with African financier Afreximbank, for the latter to arrange and syndicate a US$143 million project finance debt facility, with the bank providing US$75 million of the facility.

Afreximbank has extensive experience with Zimbabwe, and has been extending facilities to the country despite prevailing risks.

Prospect has also signed an MoU with Uranium One Group for potential offtake and equity investment.

Prospect sees immense value being derived from the quality of Arcadia’s output.

Said managing director Mr Sam Hosack last year:

“The opportunity for Prospect Resources to produce a technical grade ultra-low iron blended product of Arcadia spodumene and petalite, has the potential to deliver a fit for purpose product for glass ceramics customers and achieve higher sales prices across Arcadia’s lithium products.

“We expect such a move should provide a positive economic uplift, compared to simply selling the Arcadia spodumene to the chemical market.”

Meanwhile Mr Wheatley says he is excited at joining Prospect Resources.

“I am delighted to join Prospect as it seeks to develop the Arcadia Lithium Project. What attracted me to Prospect is the high calibre and experience of the management team, the quality of the Arcadia asset, the exposure to European markets, off-take relationships, and supportive major shareholders,” he said.

Mr Wheatley has over 15 years of director and chairman experience with exposure predominantly across gold, copper and uranium sectors.

He has previously held non-executive chairman positions with Norton Gold Fields, Xanadu Mines and Gold One International.

Mr Wheatley has also held a number of non-executive director roles including St Barbara and was a founding director of Uranium One Inc.

He is currently a non-executive director of Ora Banda Mining and Peninsula Energy.

His experience includes growth through the financing and development of projects, and he has been instrumental in a number of successful merger and acquisition transactions.

Wheatley holds a Bachelor of Engineering (Chemical Engineering) from the University of New South Wales and a Master of Business Administration from West Virginia University.

 

The Chronicle