Zimbabwe is set to become an increasingly important player in the global lithium market as new production from emerging suppliers erodes the dominance of Australia, China, and Chile over the next decade, according to BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, Mining Zimbabwe can report.
By Ryan Chigoche
BMI expects the combined share of the three leading lithium producers to decline between 2026 and 2035 as output expands in newer markets, including Zimbabwe and Argentina.
The shift could strengthen Zimbabwe’s position in the global lithium industry as the country joins a growing group of emerging producers expected to contribute a larger share of world supply in the coming years.
BMI said Zimbabwe could pave the way for the advancement of lithium mining in Africa, while Argentina’s outlook is also improving as several major projects move into operation.
Zimbabwe’s emergence as a larger lithium producer is being supported by rising production capacity and investment in local processing. Producers including Huayou Cobalt at Arcadia and Sinomine Resource Group at Bikita have invested in processing facilities as Zimbabwe pushes to capture more value from its lithium resources. The expansion of these operations, alongside further investment in beneficiation plants, provides a platform for Zimbabwe to increase its contribution to global supply, reinforcing BMI’s view that newer producers will gain a larger share of the lithium market over the coming decade.
That expansion, however, is coming at a time when the lithium market is facing a delicate balance between rising supply and resilient demand.
BMI has raised its 2026 price forecasts to $20,100 a tonne for mainland Chinese lithium carbonate and $19,600/t for lithium hydroxide monohydrate, reflecting strong upward price momentum during the first half of the year.
The research firm expects prices to ease during the second half, although continued demand from the energy-storage market is expected to limit the downside and prevent a major market correction.
That resilience is important for emerging producers such as Zimbabwe, but BMI cautions that prices remain vulnerable to a build-up in supply.
“Prices are likely to be caught in a tug-of-war between oversupply worries dampening bullish sentiment and solid demand-side fundamentals, with the balance of risks skewed to the downside as we continue to view current prices as elevated beyond what fundamentals alone would justify,” BMI said.
The supply outlook reinforces that concern. BMI expects global lithium production to increase 13.2% this year, driven mainly by Australia and China.
While higher production from established producers could add to supply pressures, the recovery in lithium prices could also encourage the restart of higher-cost operations, particularly in Australia.
At the same time, higher energy costs and a possible sulfur shortage could put pressure on miners’ margins, creating a more challenging operating environment across the industry.
Against that expanding supply base, demand is still expected to grow, although at a much slower pace.
BMI forecasts global lithium demand to increase 5.8% this year, down sharply from the 18.5% growth recorded in 2025.
The slowdown is also reflected in the electric-vehicle market, with global passenger EV sales forecast to rise 3.9% in 2026, compared with growth of 22.8% last year and 24% in 2024.
Even with that moderation, BMI expects energy storage to remain a key source of lithium demand and provide some support for prices.
Battery technology is reinforcing that demand trend. BMI expects lithium carbonate to maintain a premium over lithium hydroxide as lithium-iron-phosphate battery adoption continues to increase.
LFP batteries now account for more than half of electric vehicle batteries and more than 90% of battery-energy-storage applications, according to BMI.
China remains central to that demand story. New domestic new-energy vehicle sales rose 23.6% year-on-year and 9.8% month-on-month in June to 1.6 million units, while NEV penetration reached 58.5% of total new-vehicle sales for a third consecutive month, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
BMI said NEV penetration has now surpassed 50% of new passenger-car sales, signalling that China’s market is moving from a period of rapid expansion toward greater maturity as purchase incentives are withdrawn and broader structural pressures emerge.
Outside China, however, higher fuel prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East could provide an upside risk to lithium demand by encouraging consumers to shift toward more fuel-efficient powertrains, including EVs, plug-in hybrids, and hybrids.
How far that translates into a sustained change in consumer behaviour will be important for lithium producers, including emerging suppliers such as Zimbabwe.
While demand provides some support to the market, BMI sees longer-term technological developments as another potential source of pressure on lithium prices.
Advances in battery chemistry could result in batteries using less lithium or no lithium at all, while improvements in battery recycling could significantly expand the supply of recovered material.
For Zimbabwe, those competing forces will shape the opportunity presented by its emergence as a new lithium-producing market.
BMI’s forecast that Australia, China, and Chile will lose market share over 2026 to 2035 suggests that the global lithium industry is becoming more geographically diverse, with Zimbabwe and Argentina among the newer markets expected to increase their contribution.
BMI said Argentina’s lithium sector has promising growth prospects as several pivotal projects begin operations, while Zimbabwe could help pave the way for further development of lithium mining in Africa in the coming years.
